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Fontes and Mayes Lead Down-ballot; Yee Holds Narrow Edge for Schools Chief
Arizona’s statewide ballot remains competitive below the governor's race. Among likely voters, Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by 6 points; Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen by 6 points; and Republican Kimberly Yee holds a narrow 3-point edge over Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Noble Predictive Insights
Aug 254 min read


Katie Hobbs Leads Andy Biggs in The Grand Canyon State
NPI’s final pre-primary survey correctly identified the leading candidate in every statewide GOP primary it tested: Governor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.

Noble Predictive Insights
Aug 205 min read


NPI’s Pre-Primary Poll Nails GOP Primary Winners
NPI’s final pre-primary survey correctly identified the leading candidate in every statewide GOP primary it tested: Governor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.

Noble Predictive Insights
Jul 273 min read


Gas Prices Are Hammering Arizona Households — 90% of Voters Concerned
That is the key political finding: gas prices are a broad concern, but the voters most likely to say the issue could affect their ballot are many of the same groups already central to Arizona’s statewide battleground.

Noble Predictive Insights
May 204 min read


NV Down-Ballot: Wide-Open Primaries, Competitive General Elections
New poll finds Nevada’s 2026 down-ballot statewide races largely unsettled, with a majority of voters still undecided in key contests and no clear frontrunners emerging.

Noble Predictive Insights
Apr 14 min read


NVGOV: Lombardo Keeps Pace with Ford as Undecideds Hold the Balance
New poll finds Nevada’s 2026 governor’s race already narrowing into what looks like a highly competitive general election, with Governor Joe Lombardo and Attorney General Aaron Ford tied and a meaningful bloc of undecided voters still up for grabs.

Noble Predictive Insights
Mar 275 min read


Wide-Open Down-Ballot Primaries with High Undecided Voters
New poll finds several AZ down-ballot statewide races largely unsettled heading into the 2026 cycle, with substantial shares of primary voters undecided and no clear front-runners emerging in multiple contests.

Noble Predictive Insights
Mar 105 min read


AZGOV: Biggs Benefits from Field Consolidation, Hobbs Holds Early Edge
New poll: As the 2026 cycle begins to take shape, Arizona once again appears poised for another tightly contested gubernatorial battle.

Noble Predictive Insights
Mar 34 min read


Robson Rewrites the 2022 Playbook as She Opens with an Early Lead in Arizona GOP Primary
With Trump in her corner, Karrin Taylor Robson is entering the 2026 GOP Gov. race with a fundamentally stronger hand and a clearer path to victory.

Noble Predictive Insights
Aug 28, 20255 min read


AZ Governor’s Race: Biggs Gains Momentum as GOP Field Shifts
Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads in the primary, but the late-breaking development of Charlie Kirk's endorsement of U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs may shift the race dramatically.

Noble Predictive Insights
May 28, 20255 min read


Could Arizona’s Next Governor Be an Influencer?
Polling suggests that if he were to run for governor, Kirk might perform as well as — or better than — other more traditional candidates
Bradley Wascher
Apr 3, 20254 min read


Arizona GOP Voters Still Searching for a Gubernatorial Primary Frontrunner
A highly uncertain landscape defines the 2026 AZ GOP gubernatorial primary with nearly half of GOP voters undecided on a preferred candidate

Noble Predictive Insights
Feb 25, 20255 min read
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