Katie Hobbs Leads Andy Biggs in The Grand Canyon State
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 6 hours ago
- 5 min read
Democrats United Behind Hobbs, Key Republicans are Still Fractured around Biggs
PHOENIX (August 20, 2026)- With less than 3 months to election day, incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) holds a commanding lead over her challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs (R), but still finds herself short of a majority. Hobbs leads Biggs among likely voters by 13 points – 48% to 35% – with 12% undecided and 4% of voters intending to cast their ballot for a third-party.
This finding is part of Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). This AZPOP was conducted from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed 1040 registered Arizona voters in Arizona, including 923 likely voters, yielding margins of error of ±3.0% and ±3.2%, respectively.
Putting this survey in the context of NPI’s previous AZPOPs, there is some evidence that Katie Hobbs’ summer advertising blitz is moving the needle. Since May, Hobbs has had her share of the vote among registered voters increase 5 points, while Biggs’ has fallen by the same margin.
“Up to now, Katie Hobbs has had the general election campaign all to herself,” said Noble. “Now that Andy Biggs can turn his focus away from David Schweikert and towards Hobbs, we should start to see some fireworks.”
Party Consolidation
NPI’s first AZPOP conducted after Andy Biggs emerged from an occasionally-bruising primary against fellow Republican David Schweikert, finds that Biggs has some work to do to unify his own party. At this point in the race, 75% of Republican likely voters say they intend to vote for Biggs, while 86% of Democrats are planning to vote for Hobbs. As it stands, 15% of Republicans are planning to cross the aisle and offer their support to Katie Hobbs, while only 3% of Democrats are planning to do the same for Biggs.
“When elections are often decided by miniscule margins, candidates need to make sure their own house is in order before looking for persuadable voters,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Convincing Republicans of all stripes that they’re on the same team should be at the top of the agenda for the Biggs campaign.”
Drilling down into the type of Republican more skeptical of the Andy Biggs candidacy, the survey finds this skepticism is concentrated on the more moderate wing of the party. Among Republican likely voters who consider themselves “supporters of Donald Trump” more than “supporters of the Republican Party,” Biggs holds a commanding lead over Hobbs (84% to 6%). Republican likely voters who consider themselves Party-Loyalists instead of Trump-First still prefer Biggs, but his margin over Hobbs is smaller (69% to 24%).
“David Schweikert learned the hard way that McCain Republicans weren’t enough to swing a primary,” said Noble, “but the group can still pack a punch in a general election.”
Trust in Candidates on Issues
Turning to the substance of the general election campaign itself, the AZPOP finds likely Arizona voters trusting Katie Hobbs over Andy Biggs on a wide variety of issues. Hobbs has a lead outside of the margin of error on water management, education, housing affordability, the economy, and the spread of data centers. Biggs has a lead within the poll’s margin of error on the perennial Republican bread-and-butter issue of immigration.
“Voters are tricky,” said Noble. “Just because they trust Katie Hobbs on an issue now, there is no guarantee that they will after campaigns and independent groups blanket the state with ads over the next 75 days.”
Lieutenant Governor
In addition to the potential for record-breaking spending, another wrinkle in this upcoming campaign is the presence of a Lieutenant Governor on the ticket. Proposition 131 was passed by Arizona voters in 2022 and established the new office after the 2026 election.
At first glance, this new office is not going to be front of mind for most voters when casting their ballots. Only 1-in-6 (16%) likely Arizona voters say that a gubernatorial candidate’s selection of a running mate will have a “great deal” of impact on their decision – while for 38% the choice of running mate would have “not much” of an impact or “none at all.”
That being said, Katie Hobbs’ selection of former Republican Mayor of Mesa, John Giles, is making waves with some important groups of voters. About one-third (35%) of Independent likely voters say that choosing Giles makes them more likely to support Hobbs, compared to 18% who say his selection makes them less likely to vote for the ticket. Among Party-Loyalist Republicans, the presence of Giles on the Democratic ticket makes 29% of them more likely to vote for Hobbs and 26% of them less likely. The same cannot be said for Trump-First Republicans – only 16% are more likely to vote for a Hobbs-Giles ticket and 43% are less likely to do so.
Andy Biggs’ more traditional selection of a Republican running mate, Sine Kerr, has impacts that are more neatly broken down along party lines. A majority (55%) of Republicans are more likely to vote for Biggs with Kerr on the ticket. Most Democrats (53%) are less likely to vote for Biggs and his GOP running mate. There is less unanimity among Independents – 18% are more likely and 30% are less likely to vote for the Biggs-Kerr ticket.
“Only time will tell if Katie Hobbs’ attempt at a bipartisan ticket will pay off,” said Mike Noble. “The voters who like her choice of a (former) Republican as Lieutenant Governor might still prefer a Republican at the top of the ticket.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed Arizona registered voters via opt-in online panel. In total, we interviewed 1040 registered voters and 923 likely voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The likely voter subgroup was weighted by the same demographic categories although modeled to NPI’s current projected turnout of the electorate. The margin of error was +/- 3.04% for registered voters and +/- 3.23% for likely voters. *Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
