NEVADA POLL OF RECORD: Lombardo, Ford Deadlocked at 47%
Jauregui +7, Cannizzaro +8, Aguilar +13 as Independents Favor Democrats Across Four Races
PHOENIX (October 30, 2026)- Nevada’s governor’s race is a coin flip in an otherwise more favorable picture for Democrats, according to Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Nevada’s general election. The survey finds Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford tied at 47%, while Democrats lead for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and Secretary of State. Majorities also support both the abortion-rights and voter-identification amendments.
This Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 26–28, 2026, surveyed 487 likely general election voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ±4.44%.
Governor
Incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford each receive 47% support. Another 1% choose Danielle Ford (no relation to Aaron, who has no political party affiliation, and 1% choose “another candidate.” The remaining 4% are undecided.
Both nominees have their parties largely locked in: Lombardo holds 89% of Republicans, while Ford holds 90% of Democrats. Ford leads Independents 45% to 39%, but 10% of those voters remain undecided – more than twice the statewide share – and, if coalesced behind a single candidate, could swing the race either direction.
Age draws a sharp line. Voters ages 18–44 favor Ford 58% to 34%, while those 45 and older favor Lombardo 55% to 40%. Men favor Lombardo 53% to 42%; women favor Ford 51% to 42%.
Lombardo also entered October with a financial edge: campaign finance reports through September 30 show approximately $2.8 million in his campaign account, compared with Ford’s $1.3 million – roughly twice the cash on hand.
“This race is tied on the topline, but the coalitions behind those numbers look very different. Ford leads younger voters and Independents, while Lombardo leads older voters and holds nearly nine in ten Republicans. With one in ten Independents still undecided, there's very little separating these two candidates,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Lieutenant Governor
Democrat Sandra Jauregui leads Republican Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony 48% to 41%, a 7-point advantage. Janine Hansen, the Independent American Party candidate, receives 3%, “another candidate” receives 1%, and 8% are undecided.
Jauregui holds 91% of Democrats, while Anthony holds 77% of Republicans. She also leads Independents 46% to 38%. Anthony’s support among Republicans trails Lombardo’s by 12 points, showing that the governor’s coalition does not automatically carry over to his party’s lieutenant governor nominee.
The campaigns’ third-quarter fundraising was relatively close. Reports covering July through September show Jauregui brought in about $285,000 in direct donations, roughly $40,000 more than Anthony. Anthony, however, spent nearly twice as much during the quarter.
Attorney General
Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro has reached the coveted 50% threshold, leading Republican Adriana Guzmán Fralick 50% to 42%, with 6% undecided and 1% choosing “another candidate.”
Cannizzaro leads Independents 53% to 35% and holds 92% of Democrats, compared with Guzmán Fralick’s 84% support among Republicans. Women favor Cannizzaro 53% to 37%, while men are closely divided, with Guzmán Fralick at 49% and Cannizzaro at 48%.
Cannizzaro also entered October with a substantial cash advantage. A compilation of state campaign filings through September 30 shows approximately $930,000 in her campaign account, compared with Guzmán Fralick’s $99,000 – more than 9 times as much. These figures cover candidate accounts, excluding outside spending.
Secretary of State
Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar leads Republican Jim Marchant by double digits, 51% to 38% – the widest margin of the four races tested. Libertarian John T. Kennedy, Independent American Party candidate Brad Lee Barnhill, and “another candidate” collectively take 5% of the vote, while 6% remain undecided.
Aguilar leads Independents 54% to 29% and draws 11% of Republicans. He holds 93% of Democrats, while Marchant holds 77% of Republicans. Aguilar holds the largest advantage among Independents of the four Democratic nominees, along with the strongest Democratic party loyalty.
The fundraising contrast is also pronounced: reports covering July through September show Aguilar received about $575,000 in direct donations, compared with Marchant’s $21,000 – more than a 25:1 advantage.
Ballot Questions
Nevada voters are being asked to give two constitutional amendments a second approval. Questions 6 and 7 both passed in 2024 and must pass again this year to amend the Nevada Constitution. Both have majority support in this poll, though their coalitions look very different.
Question 6 would establish a constitutional right to abortion until fetal viability, or when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant individual at any point during pregnancy. A 57% majority supports the measure, and 34% oppose it. Another 6% are not sure, and 3% say they would not vote on it.
Support comes from 91% of Democrats and 67% of Independents. Republicans broadly oppose it, 64% to 20%. Voters ages 18–44 support it 72% to 23%, compared with 48% to 40% among those 45 and older.
Question 7 would require photo identification for in-person voting and certain identifying information for voting by mail. The survey description specified the last four digits of a driver’s license or Social Security number for mail voting. The proposal leads 58% to 37%, with 4% not sure and 1% saying they would not vote on it.
Republicans overwhelmingly support Question 7 (92%), and Independents favor it 52% to 41%. Democrats oppose it 70% to 26%. The age pattern reverses from Question 6: voters 45 and older support voter ID 67% to 29%, while those ages 18–44 oppose it 52% to 45%.
“Nevada's Independents don't fit neatly into either party's political box. As a group, they support both abortion rights and voter ID, two issues that divide Democrats and Republicans sharply. It's another reminder that voters don't necessarily follow party lines on every issue,” Noble said.
Trump Job Approval
President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 42%, with 58% disapproving, putting him 16 points underwater among Nevada likely voters. More than half of the electorate in this poll (54%) strongly disapproves of his performance.
Republicans approve 82% to 17%, while Democrats disapprove 96% to 4%. Independents also lean heavily against the president, with 68% disapproving and 31% approving.
Lombardo’s 47% support runs 5 points ahead of Trump’s approval. Among Lombardo supporters, 18% disapprove of Trump – a sign that some voters are separating their judgment of the governor from their judgment of the president.
"Here's the paradox: Trump is 16 points underwater in Nevada, yet Lombardo is tied for governor. Nearly one in five Lombardo supporters disapprove of Trump's job performance. That tells you this governor's race isn't simply a referendum on the White House," said Noble.
Early Voting
About 45% of likely voters report having already voted or returned an early ballot. Ford leads among those respondents 55% to 42%. Among those yet to vote, Lombardo leads 51% to 39%, making follow-through among his remaining supporters important to the governor’s race.
“Ford leads by 13 points among voters who say they’ve already voted, while Lombardo leads by 12 among those who haven’t. For Lombardo, that means a substantial part of his support still needs to become a vote. In a tied race, that follow-through could make the difference,” Noble said.
Final thoughts from NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble:
“The governor's race tells a different story from the rest of the Republican ticket. Lombardo holds 89% of Republicans and trails Independents by just six points, while the other Republican nominees face much larger deficits. That helps explain why the governor's race is tied while the other three contests aren't.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 26-28, 2026, and surveyed Nevada likely voters via text-to-online. In total, we interviewed 487 likely voters in Nevada. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Nevada electorate by gender, county, age, party, race/ethnicity, education, and recalled 2024 presidential vote, according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and Census data. The margin of error was +/-4.44% for likely voters. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
