AZ POLL OF RECORD: Hobbs +6, Yee Bucks the Trend
Fontes +6 and Mayes +4 as Independents Favor Democrats Across All Four Races
PHOENIX (October 30, 2026)- With only days until Election Day, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Arizona’s general election finds Katie Hobbs leading Andy Biggs by 6 points for governor. Adrian Fontes and Kris Mayes also lead their races, while Kimberly Yee holds a narrow 2-point edge over Teresa Leyba Ruiz for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 26–28, 2026, surveyed 511 likely general election voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ±4.34%.
Governor
Democrat Katie Hobbs receives 51% support to Republican Andy Biggs’ 45%, a 6-point lead. Just 3% remain undecided.
Hobbs holds 94% of Democrats, compared with Biggs’ 85% support among Republicans. She also leads Independents 62% to 32% and draws 9% of Republicans. Stronger Democratic loyalty and a wide Independent lead put her ahead in this poll.
“Hobbs has Democrats locked in and a wide lead among Independents. Biggs is winning most Republicans, but the defections matter in a state this competitive. The larger Republican base is not enough to put him ahead of the coalition Hobbs has assembled,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Education produces a sharp divide. Voters with a college degree favor Hobbs 62% to 33%; those without one favor Biggs 54% to 42%. Hobbs also leads among women, 54% to 42%, while men are closely divided, with Biggs at 48% and Hobbs at 47%.
Hobbs’ polling lead comes after a substantial spending advantage: campaign finance reports through September 30 show roughly $17.8 million in cycle-to-date expenditures for her campaign, compared with Biggs’ $5.3 million. Their remaining cash was much closer, at approximately $672,000 for Hobbs and $507,000 for Biggs.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
In the only race tested with a GOP lead, Republican Kimberly Yee leads Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz 48% to 46%, with 5% undecided and 1% choosing another candidate. The 2-point gap makes this the closest of the four contests.
Leyba Ruiz leads Independents 51% to 41%, but Yee’s 41% support from those voters exceeds that of the other three Republican nominees. The smaller Democratic advantage among Independents helps keep this contest nearly even.
Yee holds 88% of Republicans, while Leyba Ruiz holds 92% of Democrats. Yee also receives 6% support among Hobbs voters. Men favor Yee 53% to 42%, while women favor Leyba Ruiz 50% to 44%.
The superintendent’s race is closely matched financially as well as politically. Campaign finance reports through September 30 show approximately $259,000 in cash on hand for Yee and $237,000 for Leyba Ruiz, leaving neither campaign with a commanding cash advantage.
“Yee is showing why these races have to be judged separately. She is getting more support from Independents than Biggs, Kolodin, or Petersen – That keeps the superintendent race close even as Democrats lead the other three contests,” Noble said.
Attorney General
Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen 50% to 46%, with 4% undecided.
Mayes holds 93% of Democrats, while Petersen holds 88% of Republicans. Independents give Mayes the advantage: she leads those voters 60% to 33%, helping her overcome the GOP’s larger share of the electorate. The education divide is pronounced: voters with a college degree favor Mayes 61% to 36%, while those without one favor Petersen 55% to 41%.
Mayes also entered October with a financial cushion, reporting roughly $1 million in cash on hand to Petersen’s $250,000—a four-to-one advantage in resources available for the closing stretch.
Secretary of State
Democrat Adrian Fontes receives 50% support to Republican Alexander Kolodin’s 44%, matching Hobbs’ 6-point lead. Another 5% are undecided.
Fontes’ strongest asset is his support among Independents, who favor him 63% to 28% – the widest Independent margin in any of these four contests. He also holds 92% of Democrats, compared with Kolodin’s 86% support among Republicans.
Fontes entered October with approximately $713,000 in cash on hand, compared with Kolodin’s $420,000, giving the incumbent more campaign resources as he worked to protect his lead.
Trump Job Approval
President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 44%, with 56% disapproving, putting him 12 points underwater among Arizona likely voters. Disapproval is also more intense: 52% strongly disapprove of his performance.
Republicans largely approve of his performance, 83% to 16%, while Democrats disapprove 94% to 5%. Independents fall firmly on the negative side, with 69% disapproving and 31% approving.
Early Voting
About half of likely voters (52%) report having already voted or returned an early ballot, according to the survey. Hobbs leads among those respondents 62% to 36%. Among those yet to vote, Biggs leads approximately 54% to 39%. The group still to vote is more Republican in its preferences, making follow-through among those voters important to the governor’s race.
“We’re looking at two very different electorates. Hobbs leads by 26 points among voters who say they've already cast their ballots, while Biggs leads by 15 points among those who haven't. That's a striking divide heading into Election Day," said Noble.
Final thoughts from NPI Founder & CEO Mike Noble:
“Republicans outnumber Democrats in this likely-voter sample, yet Democrats lead three of the four races. A big part of that story is Independents. Yee is still losing those voters, but by a much smaller margin than the other Republican candidates. That’s what makes her race different.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 26-28, 2026, and surveyed Arizona likely voters via text-to-online. In total, we interviewed 511 likely voters in Arizona. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Arizona electorate by gender, county, age, party, race/ethnicity, education, and recalled 2024 presidential vote, according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and Census data. The margin of error was +/-4.34% for likely voters. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
