Lombardo Tries to Escape Trump’s Orbit; Up 2 Over Ford
Democratic Candidates Hold Narrow Down-ballot Leads; Broad Support for Questions 6 and 7
PHOENIX (October 6, 2026)- Five weeks before Election Day, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo holds a narrow 2-point lead over Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford among likely Nevada voters. The race remains within the poll's margin of error, with 7% supporting independent candidate Danielle Ford and 9% undecided, according to Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll.
This NVPOP, conducted from September 22-26, 2026, surveyed 800 registered voters in Nevada, including 708 likely voters, yielding a margin of error of ±3.46% for registered voters and ±3.68% for likely voters.
Lombardo Lacks Long Coattails
If the results of the November election mirror the NVPOP results exactly – which they won’t – Joe Lombardo would be the only Republican among Nevada’s statewide elected officials. Up and down the ballot, Democrats lead their Republican opponents by 1 to 8 points.
The NVPOP finds that Lombardo’s edge over his fellow Republicans is primarily due to two factors: overperformance among independent and Clark County voters and the presence of a third-party candidate.
In the Governor’s Race, Lombardo is statistically tied with Aaron Ford among voters who don’t align with either the Republican or Democratic Party (32%-32%). Down-ballot Republicans do not fare as well. Independents prefer the Democratic Candidate in the races for Lieutenant Governor (Jauregi +4), Treasurer (Mathis-Coleman +7), State Controller (MacDougal +8), Secretary of State (Aguilar +11), and Attorney General (Cannizzaro +12).
Among Clark County voters, the trend is similar. Lombardo (41%) is statistically tied with Ford (42%), while Democrats in other races run ahead of their Republican opponents, with leads ranging from 6 points to 14 points.
“Politics is not baseball, where one player’s home run counts towards the whole team’s score,” says Noble Predictive Insights Founder & CEO Mike Noble. “Down-ballot Republicans may learn again that Joe Lombardo can win without them.”
Each Candidate Has Talking Points
As the former Sheriff of Clark County, it should come as no surprise that Joe Lombardo's clearest advantage in voter trust is on public safety and crime. Nevada likely voters trust him over Aaron Ford by 12 points. Ford's clearest advantage, on the other hand, is housing affordability, where he leads Lombardo by 6. The remaining issues are statistically tied: Ford holds 2-point edges on the economy and education, while Lombardo holds 1- and 2-point edges on water and Nevada's tourism and business climate.
"The clearest sign that this election isn’t about public safety or affordable housing is the fact that it’s so closely divided," says Noble. “If crime were front of mind for most voters, Lombardo would be mopping up. If affordable housing were, Ford would have the edge.”
On the economy specifically, voters do not appear to be conflating Joe Lombardo’s handling of Nevada’s economy with Donald Trump’s handling of the national economy. Nevada voters give Lombardo a middling grade on his economic job performance (45% approve – 47% disapprove). On the other hand, voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the job Lombardo’s fellow Republican, Trump, has been doing at the national level (38% approve – 61% disapprove).
“The daylight that voters see between Joe Lombardo and Donald Trump on the economy is a key reason why this race is even close,” says Noble. “If Nevadans saw Lombardo like they do Trump, Aaron Ford could start picking out paint colors for the Governor’s Mansion.”
Republican and Democratic Ballot Questions are on Glide Paths to Passing
“Traditionally, ‘wedge issues’ are supposed to unite your party and divide your opponents,” says Noble. “With Voter ID and Abortion Access, both parties get to have a wedge issue on the ballot this cycle.”
According to this NVPOP, support for Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, begins with a 47-point advantage (69% of likely voters plan to vote ‘yes’; 22% plan to vote ‘no’). Question 7, the Nevada Voter Identification Initiative, begins with a 42-point advantage for yes (67% yes, 25% no).
In true, wedge-issue fashion, enshrining the right to an abortion in the Nevada Constitution unites Democrats (88% yes, 6% no) and Independents (67% yes, 22% no), while dividing Republicans (52% yes, 38% no). On the other hand, requiring voter ID in Nevada is nearly a mirror image. Nearly all (86%) Republicans and a supermajority of Independents (67%) intend to vote yes, while Democrats are closely divided, 48% yes to 44% no.
"Parties usually appreciate having a friendly wedge issue on the ballot to juice support for their team,” says Mike Noble. “This time, the wedge issues happen to cancel each other out, leaving campaign strategists from both sides likely wishing they had kept their powder dry.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from September 22-26, 2026, and surveyed Nevada registered voters via an opt-in online panel. In total, NPI interviewed 800 registered voters and 708 likely voters, determined through screening questions. The sample was weighted to reflect Nevada's voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, education, and 2024 vote recall using recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State's Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.46% for registered voters and +/- 3.68% for likely voters. All current election, candidate-trust, and ballot-measure findings use likely voters. The March comparison uses registered voters and is directional only. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
