A year of Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) polling from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) showcases a political environment defined by softening incumbents, hardening partisan divides, and very little voter movement beneath the surface.

As the 2026 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, early data suggests the Republican Party holds a small advantage overall, but that high-profile elected Democrats are in good political shape. 

Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads in the primary, but the late-breaking development of Charlie Kirk's endorsement of U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs may shift the race dramatically.

Insight into voter sentiment on key issues, political party performance, and the approval ratings of Arizona’s top leaders

A highly uncertain landscape defines the 2026 AZ GOP gubernatorial primary with nearly half of GOP voters undecided on a preferred candidate

In February 2023 – just after Hobbs took office – her approval rating stood at net +13. In February 2024, her net approval remains the same.

In February, OHPI released its first-ever Power Rankings of potential candidates in Arizona. Three months later, it is updating that list to