Arizona Public Opinion: A Year in Review
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 10 minutes ago
- 4 min read
How Arizona’s Political Climate Shifted Through 2025
PHOENIX (January 8, 2026)- A year of Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) polling from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) showcases a political environment defined by softening incumbents, hardening partisan divides, and very little voter movement beneath the surface.
The past year of Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has nuggets that should concern and reassure both major parties. President Trump’s job approval rating has dropped, matching his previous peak in unpopularity. Governor Katie Hobbs is starting the election year with growing disapproval ratings that have steadily ticked upwards since last year. Meanwhile, Arizona voters remain sharply divided on the state’s direction and which party should represent them in Congress. All of these signals point to another gangbuster election cycle for the Grand Canyon State.
The most recent AZPOP, conducted from December 8-11, 2025, surveyed 1,012 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.08%.
One of the most notable shifts in Arizona voter opinion during 2025 was the erosion of President Trump’s job approval over the course of his first year back in office. Trump started his second term narrowly above water, with 50% of Arizona voters approving of his job performance and 47% disapproving. By the end of his second first year, the share of voters approving of the job Trump is doing fell to 42%, while the share of those disapproving rose to 55%. These numbers are approaching the levels of unpopularity Joe Biden had at the end of his term – in August of 2024, 38% of Arizona voters approved of Joe Biden’s job performance and 58% disapproved.
“Trump’s approval slide in Arizona is a flashing red warning light for Republicans – and a clear opening for Democrats,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “In a state decided on the margins, an unpopular president changes the math.”
President Trump’s current -13% net approval rating is also a steep drop off from just four months prior, when he was at -3% net approval. This 10-point drop is being largely driven by drops among 65+ year-olds (19% decrease in net approval since Aug ’25), women (17% decrease), Republicans (13% decrease), and Independents (12% decrease).
A troubling sign for the Hobbs team coming into an election year is the steady uptick in her job disapproval rating since the summer of 2024. In Noble Predictive Insights’ May 2024 AZPOP, 32% of Arizona voters had a negative view of Hobbs’ job performance. By December of the following year, that number had increased 12 percentage points to 43%. Over the same period, the share of voters approving of the governor's job performance increased by 5 percentage points.
“Incumbents can survive middling approval numbers, but sustained growth in disapproval is harder to outrun,” said Mike Noble. “Republicans will look at these trends and see a governor who has not consolidated public confidence heading into a critical election year.”
As we look back over the last year of other areas of AZ public opinion, we see broad steadiness in voter opinion – in an off-cycle election year, voter opinion hasn’t changed much.
Over the course of 2025, the issues at the forefront of most Arizona voters ' minds held steady as well. Health care was the largest riser over the past year, increasing from a top-3 issue for 33% of voters in February to 41% by December. The biggest drop over the last 12 months was immigration. At the beginning of 2025, immigration was a top issue for 44% of Arizona voters – second only to inflation’s 49% – but by year’s end, it had slipped to fourth place at 38%, overtaken by both affordable housing and healthcare.
Another remarkable area of consistency over the past year of AZPOPs has been voters’ evenly divided perception of the direction of the state. Between February and December’s polls, the share of voters thinking the state is on the right track fell 1 percentage point, and those who think the state is headed off in the wrong direction rose 1 point.
“Politicians up for reelection this November should find it somewhat concerning that we have not seen a time during their term when most voters agreed Arizona was headed in the right direction,” said Noble.
A similar case study in stability over the last 4 AZPOPs is the generic congressional ballot. In February 2025, Democrats had a 1-point lead over their GOP opponents (40% to 39%). By December, Democrats had a statistically unchanged 2-point lead (39% to 37%).
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from December 8-11, 2025, and surveyed Arizona registered voters via opt-in online panel. In total, we interviewed 1012 registered voters. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.08%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.