Nevadans Fear Political Violence but Lack Faith in Leaders to Ease Division
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 9 minutes ago
- 4 min read
More Than 4 in 5 Voters Worry About Political Violence, but are Split on Solutions
PHOENIX (October 30, 2025)- Nevadans across the political spectrum are worried that political violence could take root in their own state, according to the latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) polling data from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).
This NVPOP, conducted from October 7–13, 2025, surveyed 766 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.54%.
More than 4 in 5 voters express at least some concern about political violence occurring in Nevada. Concern crosses party lines, underscoring the anxiety shared across an electorate long accustomed to intense political competition.
“Political violence has become a universal worry in Nevada,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Voters see the threat as real, but they are divided on how to reduce it or even who to trust to do so.”
Nevadans Split on How to Prevent Violence
While voters broadly agree that violence is a threat, they diverge sharply on how best to prevent it. The survey finds no single solution commanding majority support, but a 35% slim plurality of voters believe deterrence requires stricter enforcement against threats and acts of political violence. Another 29% of voters say the most effective prevention will come from bipartisan cooperation in government, suggesting that Nevadans value political unity, but they want accountability slightly more.
Groups driving “Stricter enforcement” (35%):
Republicans (45%)
Trump-first Republicans (54%)
Conservatives (47%)
Ages 65+ (43%)
Parents with adult children (42%)
Lived in Nevada 20+ years (41%)
Groups driving “bipartisan cooperation” (29%):
HHI $100k+ (40%)
College grads (39%) and post-grads (44%)
Ages 65+ (39%)
Parents with adult children (35%)
Lived in Nevada 11-20 years (36%)
Low Trust in Political Leaders to Use Responsible Language
Neither major party's leaders earn the confidence of most voters to use language that calms rather than ignites political tensions. Both Democrats and Republicans fall short of majority trust, but voters have more skepticism that GOP leaders can tone down divisive speech – Republicans’ net distrust is 9 points higher than Democrats’.
“The data highlights how language has become a flashpoint in American politics. Voters know rhetoric matters, yet few feel their leaders are setting the right example,” said Mike Noble.
Most Believe Divisive Speech Fuels Risk of Violence
Nevadans overwhelmingly see a connection between divisive political speech and the risk of violence – a strong 83% share of Nevada voters say that such political speech contributes at least somewhat to potential violence. Notably, a majority (55%) say it contributes “a great deal.”
When asked about balancing free expression with public safety, voters express mixed views on this issue. Half of Nevadans prioritize protecting free speech regardless of its divisiveness, while one-third say it’s more important to curb rhetoric that could incite harm, even when it means limiting some speech.
“Voters recognize the power behind words, especially coming from political leaders – they’re in agreement that certain language can spark violence. What’s interesting is the larger disparity when it comes to finding a balance or solution – only one-third of voters say the priority is reducing risk by limiting speech that incites violence; another half care more about protecting free speech regardless of the risk,” said Noble.
Groups driving “Protect free speech” (50%):
Ages 18-29 (55%)
Hispanic/Latinos (58%)
Independents (56%)
Lived in Nevada <5 years (55%)
Groups driving “Limit speech that could encourage violence” (33%):
College grads (42%) and post-grads (40%)
HHI $100k+ (39%)
Trump-first Republicans (40%)
Voters Stay Engaged Despite Division
Amid the concern, there is reason for optimism. Political division is not deterring most Nevadans from civic participation. The majority say division either has no effect (39%) or actually makes them more determined to vote, volunteer, or engage in their communities (37%).
Post-graduates (58%), voters over age 65 (51%), and Trump-first Republicans (48%) are the most encouraged to stay engaged. Among the 15% who are currently the most likely to withdraw from civic participation, young voters (26%), non-white voters (20%), and Independents (19%) are the key drivers.
“While it is encouraging to see that Nevada voters are generally energized about civic participation, that 15% share of folks who say they might take a step back is huge in a purple state – especially when a main driver of that group is the all-important Independents. This will be a crucial group to capture for the 2026 election cycle,” said Noble.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 7–13, 2025 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample via online opt-in panel and text-to-online. The sample included 766 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.54% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. *Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.