Nevada’s 2026 Governor’s Race: Lombardo and Ford Locked in Early Dead Heat
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 20 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Voters Want Candidates to Address Pocketbook Issues Most
PHOENIX (October 23, 2025)- Nevada voters are staring down another nail-biter gubernatorial race. The latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) shows Republican Governor Joe Lombardo holding a narrow lead over Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, underscoring the deep divisions defining the Silver State's political landscape.
This NVPOP, conducted from October 7–13, 2025, surveyed 766 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.54%.
If the election were held today, incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo narrowly leads AG Aaron Ford 40% to 37% with 23% undecided, signaling another high-intensity campaign season in one of the nation's most competitive swing states. Although Nevada voters say Democrats are more suited to run the state by 2 points (39/37), Lombardo manages to outperform a generic state ballot with a 3-point lead over his Democratic challenger.
Demographic splits are shaping the early contours of the contest. Lombardo performs best among suburban residents, leading by 8 points, Independents (+4), and Clark County (+2). Ford, however, draws overwhelming strength from Hispanic/Latino voters, who favor him by 23 points, underscoring his ability to mobilize a critical voter bloc in a swing state.
Lombardo also holds an advantage as an incumbent, and voters are generally happy with his governance, with a net +7 job approval (44% approve / 37% disapprove). Lombardo is more well-known than Ford; however, the two candidates share statistically equal net favorability ratings.
“This will be a competitive race, and the polling indicates that Lombardo needs to define Ford before Ford defines himself,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Both candidates are generally liked statewide, but popularity isn’t enough – voters are making decisions based on cost of living and economic performance more than ever.”
Nevadans of all political stripes are unified in what they want their next governor to prioritize. Pocketbook pains remain the dominant issues statewide – voters across party lines agree that cost of essentials, jobs and the economy, and housing affordability are most important for gubernatorial candidates to address during the campaign.
“Nevadans are looking for tangible solutions to everyday challenges. The candidate who connects on affordability will likely carry the momentum into 2026,” said Mike Noble.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from October 7–13, 2025 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample via online opt-in panel and text-to-online. The sample included 766 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.54% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. *Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.