Back on the Right Track: Confidence in State Leadership and Elections Rebounds Amid National Division
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 10 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Optimism about Utah’s direction, strong faith in mail voting, and broad support for pragmatic leadership
PHOENIX (October 16, 2025)- Utahns are feeling better about their state’s trajectory and leadership than they did a year ago, according to a new Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) conducted in September by Noble Predictive Insights. Majorities say the state is on the right track, approve of Gov. Spencer Cox’s job performance, and express confidence in the fairness of upcoming elections.
Yet beneath that optimism lies a current of caution: younger voters, women, and Democrats remain more skeptical of the state’s direction, and divisions persist between “Trump-first” and “Party-first” Republicans.
Utah’s Direction Turns Positive Again
After hovering around the break-even point in late 2024, Utahns’ mood has improved markedly. The September 2025 topline finds 57% saying the state is headed in the right direction and 43% believing it’s on the wrong track — a reversal from October 2024 (49% right track / 51% wrong direction).
The rebound is powered by men (65% right track), Republicans (74%), and older voters (71% among ages 65+). However, women (49% right track), Democrats (18%), and younger voters (41% among ages 18–29) remain less certain.
"Utahns are clearly bouncing back from last year’s uncertainty,” said NPI Founder and CEO, Mike Noble. “They see stability and progress where the nation sees gridlock."
GOP Still Dominates, but Redistricting Could Shake Things Up
Republicans continue to hold a commanding advantage in Utah’s political landscape.On the generic congressional ballot, the GOP leads by 24 points statewide (R 46% / D 22% / Other or Unsure 31%).
The new redistricting map passed by the legislature in October 2025 creates two “competitive” districts — one rated R+11 and another R+6 — potentially opening the door for Democrats to compete more effectively around Salt Lake County.
“Even with new maps creating a couple of competitive districts, Utah’s Republican advantage remains formidable,” said Noble. “But local shifts could make a real difference in the right counties."
Trump and Cox: Different Styles, Different Coalitions
Utah’s two most visible Republican leaders continue to command attention — but in very different ways.
Former President Donald Trump remains above water, with 54% approving and 43% disapproving of his job performance. His support is strongest among Republicans (78% approve) and weakest among Democrats (4%), while independents lean toward approval (57% approve / 37% disapprove).
Within the GOP, a familiar split endures: “Trump-first” Republicans are nearly unanimous (100% approve / 0% disapprove), while “Party-first” Republicans show more mixed views (76% approve / 22% disapprove).
Governor Spencer Cox, by contrast, enjoys higher overall approval (56% approve / 34% disapprove) and broader bipartisan goodwill.
Republicans: 71% approve / 22% disapprove
Democrats: 27% approve / 67% disapprove
Independents: 45% approve / 40% disapprove
Among the Trump-aligned faction, Cox’s ratings dip slightly (67% approve / 26% disapprove), underscoring his reputation as a less polarizing, more consensus-oriented leader.
“Trump commands loyalty, but Cox wins the broader tent — Utah Republicans are showing they value pragmatism over pure ideology,” said Noble.
Confidence in Elections Remains Broad and Bipartisan
Even as election skepticism remains a national storyline, most Utahns express strong faith in their own state’s system – nearly three-quarters (73%) are confident in the fairness of the upcoming midterm election, while 21% are not.
Among Republicans overall, 80% express confidence in the electoral process, while 15% report a lack of confidence. Delving deeper, “Trump-first” Republicans show 76% confidence and 16% lack of confidence, illustrating slightly less trust compared to their “Party-first” counterparts, who display the highest assurance — 85% confident and only 12% not confident.
Among independents, 65% feel confident in the fairness of the upcoming elections, with 26% reporting skepticism. Democrats are more divided, with 64% expressing confidence and 33% not confident in the system.
"While the nation debates election integrity, Utah voters are quietly confident that their system works — a rare bright spot in today’s political climate,” said Noble.
Mail Voting: Stability Favored, but Some Want Easier Access
Attitudes toward mail voting reveal both trust and mild reform fatigue. Overall, the vast majority want mail-in voting to be kept the same (43%) or made easier (29%), but a schism reveals that some election reforms may be backfiring.
Among voters confident in election fairness, 49% say Utah should keep mail voting the same, while 26% want it easier and 22% want it harder.
Among those not confident, however, the pattern reverses — 43% want voting by mail to be easier, compared to 26% who want it unchanged and 25% who want it harder.
“What we’re seeing with low-trust voters actually liking mail-in voting, tells us that reforms that may have shored up confidence among some voters, weakened it among others,” said Noble.
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from September 22–26, 2025 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample via online opt-in panel and text-to-online. The sample included 621 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.93% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor, and recent Census data. *Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.