Arizonans Are More Confident in Election Integrity
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Sep 18
- 5 min read
Change of Heart among Republicans; Democrats and Independents Unchanged Since 2021
PHOENIX (September 18, 2025)- Arizona's high-profile contested election battles are showing signs of cooling as voters express renewed confidence in electoral fairness, marking a dramatic shift from the intense partisan warfare that dominated recent election cycles. According to new polling from Noble Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), Republicans and Democrats have converged on remarkably similar levels of trust in election integrity, while the once-explosive debate over mail-in voting has settled into broad acceptance of the current system.
This AZPOP, conducted from August 11–18, 2025, surveyed 948 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.18%.
Republicans and Democrats Converge on Election Trust
Arizona voters are displaying high levels of election confidence, with an impressive 70% expressing trust in the fairness of upcoming elections. Overall confidence is up by 12 points from NPI’s poll among Arizona voters in July of 2021, when the Maricopa County audit was in full swing. In 2021, Confidence was driven by Democrats (80%), rallying in favor of the audit, whereas Republicans were significantly less confident, and evenly split on their confidence as well (40%/39%). Independents fell roughly in the middle at 56% confident.
Perhaps most striking is the near-identical trust levels now exhibited by the state's major political parties. Republicans report 77% confidence in election fairness while Democrats register 75% confidence, creating virtually no partisan gap on what was once the most divisive issue in Arizona politics. This bipartisan alignment suggests that successful election administration and the passage of time have helped heal some wounds from previous electoral controversies.
“Watching your party’s candidate win can do wonders to restore confidence in the fairness of elections,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
The Republican Party's internal dynamics reveal fascinating nuances in how different GOP factions view election integrity. Party-first Republicans demonstrate the highest confidence levels at 85%, while Trump-first Republicans show more measured trust at 70%. This 15-point difference within the GOP highlights how President Trump's continued influence on election perceptions creates ongoing tensions even within his own party's ranks.
Independent Voters Emerge as the New Skeptical Force
While Republicans and Democrats have found common ground on election trust, only 58% of Independents express confidence in election fairness, lagging significantly behind both major parties and creating a new center of electoral skepticism.
The emergence of Independents as the most distrusting demographic represents a significant shift in Arizona's political landscape. These voters are caught in the crossfire of not trusting Trump but also see the partisan bickering over things like gerrymandering, and are deciding that both parties aren’t trustworthy. Independents’ heightened scrutiny of election processes could influence their participation and candidate preferences in ways that traditional partisan analysis might miss.
“The survey shows progress and challenges – Republicans and Democrats express strong confidence in Arizona’s elections, but independents remind us there’s more work ahead,” said Bill Gates, Director of the Arizona State University Mechanics of Democracy Laboratory (MODL).
Generational and Racial Divides Persist in Election Trust
Beyond partisan data, Arizona's election confidence reveals important demographic patterns that highlight ongoing challenges in building universal trust in election administration. Age emerges as a particularly powerful predictor of election confidence, with older voters demonstrating substantially higher trust levels than their younger counterparts, suggesting that recent electoral controversies have had lasting impacts on emerging generations' trust in democratic institutions.
Racial differences also shape election confidence, though these divisions prove less dramatic than generational splits. White voters report stronger confidence at 76% than Hispanic/Latinos (58%) and other non-white voters (61%), indicating modest but persistent trust gaps across Arizona's diverse electorate.
These demographic patterns suggest that building comprehensive election confidence requires addressing concerns that extend beyond partisan politics into broader questions of generational experience and racial equity in electoral access and representation.
Return to Sender? Voters Say Leave Mail-in Alone
The intense partisan battles over mail-in voting that once dominated Arizona's election debates have largely dissipated. Only 18% of voters want to make mail-in voting more difficult, while 32% support making it easier, and a plurality of 43% prefer maintaining the existing system unchanged.
Even among Republicans, where mail-in voting skepticism historically ran strongest, opinions have fragmented. While 28% of GOP voters want mail-in voting to be more difficult, 22% want easier access, and 46% prefer keeping the current system. Trump-first Republicans show the strongest sentiment of restricting access at 37%, but a statistically equal 36% prefer the status quo, while 21% want easier access. Party-first Republicans demonstrate even less appetite for change, with 58% preferring to maintain current systems unchanged.
“Mail-in voting has become normalized in Arizona,” said Noble. “While Trump can still stir up skepticism, even among Republicans, there's no longer a broad base demanding rollbacks. Most voters are ready to move on and keep the system stable.”
Democratic voters present an unsurprisingly unified front. An overwhelming 91% of Democrats either want to keep mail-in voting the same or make it easier, with only 4% supporting restrictions. Independent voters largely mirror statewide preferences, with 34% wanting easier access, 37% supporting the status quo, and 19% preferring restrictions.
“Republicans appear to have made peace with the election system following Trump's 2024 win,” said Noble. “The surprise in these numbers is Independents. They don't trust Trump, but they also don't see Democrats as credible stewards of the process. That puts them in a cynical middle ground where nobody looks good.”
Arizona appears to be entering a new phase of electoral politics where traditional partisan battles over voting methods and election integrity have cooled significantly. The convergence of Republican and Democratic confidence levels, combined with broad acceptance of mail-in voting systems, indicates that previous controversies may have run their political course.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 11–18, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 948 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.18%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
About Mechanics of Democracy Laboratory (MODL) at Arizona State University: MODL is a nonpartisan initiative focused on improving the quality, transparency, and resilience of elections across the United States. Founded in 2024, MODL was created to meet a pressing national need: modernizing and professionalizing how elections are run. At a time when public trust in democratic institutions is fragile, our lab brings together academic expertise, practitioner experience, and cutting-edge technology to create practical solutions for election administration. MODL provides trainings for election officials, conducts research into improving systems and processes, and engages in public education to counter misinformation. For more information, visit MODL's website at MODL.spa.asu.edu.