Arizona Power Rankings: Rating AZ Political Figures
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 51 minutes ago
- 4 min read
NPI Power Rankings Show Who is Well-Positioned for 2026
PHOENIX (January 22, 2026)- Signals show Jay Feely may find success in his quest to trade the rough and tumble environment of an NFL football field for the rough and tumble floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) is releasing the newest edition of its Power Rankings of popular (and sometimes unpopular) figures in Arizona, and the former Arizona Cardinals kicker comes in second place on the list.
While the top 4 names on NPI’s Power Rankings are evenly split along party lines – Democrats Ruben and Kate Gallego are 1 & 3, and Republicans Jay Feely and Kimberly Yee are 2 & 4 – the remainder of the list is composed of Democrats.
This is not strictly due to the partisan affiliation of the individuals, but the fact that in today’s political landscape in Arizona, certain Democrats tend to have higher profiles. This contributes to a higher name ID and higher net favorability, thus a higher NPI Power Ranking.
"All major statewide and legislative offices are up for election this year," says Mike Noble, NPI Chief of Research. "The NPI Power Rankings help identify potential candidates early."
NPI's Power Rankings are derived from a recent survey in which voters shared their perspectives on 50 individuals and outlined their criteria for statewide office candidates. Importantly, the rankings do not take into account an individual's probability of seeking office, which accounts for the inclusion of recently retired Senator Kyrsten Sinema.
In addition to commonly used indicators such as name ID and net favorability—which gauge a candidate’s electoral prospects—NPI has formulated a “Demographic and Experience (D/E) Score” designed to assess and rank candidates who may not be widely recognized by the electorate. When calculating this score, NPI evaluates variables including political affiliation, age, ethnicity, gender, and prior elected positions held, among several other relevant characteristics.
To better understand the specifics of how these scores are calculated, we’ve written a blog that lays out the process – check it out here.
“Stripping away factors like Name ID and favorability, we see a much more even partisan playing field,” says Noble. “Republicans and Democrats each account for 5 spots in our Demographic-Experience Score Top 10.”
While there is some overlap between the “NPI Power Top 10” list—focused on potential candidates’ name recognition and favorability—and the “D/E Score Top 10,” which does not consider those factors, the two lists are not exactly the same. The D/E Score list tends to favor candidates with lower name recognition who better match voters’ preferred qualities, such as having children, experience in local office, or being under 60 years old. Those who rank higher on the D/E score but lower on the power ranking, like Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap, Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva, and State Senator Kiana Sears, could be strong contenders for governor or senator if they increase their name recognition and maintain a positive public image.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from December 8-11, 2025, and surveyed Arizona registered voters via opt-in online panel. In total, we interviewed 1011 registered voters. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.08%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
NPI Power Score: This score considers name ID, net favorability, and NPI’s Demographic and Experience score but puts a greater emphasis on name ID and net favorability than the other measure.
Demographic and Experience Score: This score assigns potential candidates points based on how well their personal characteristics match voters’ preferences. For example, 39% of voters preferred a candidate who is a Democrat; thus, the Democrats got 39% of a point. Thirty-eight percent chose a Republican, so Republicans got 38% of a point – and so on. The following characteristics compose this score: party, political experience, county of residence/representation, experience as a US Senator, experience as a US Congressman, experience as a statewide office holder, experience as an Arizona State legislator, experience as a local officeholder, electoral record, gender, age, racial/ethnic minority status, and parental status. Party, age, and gender play a larger share in these rankings than the other characteristics.
To better understand the specifics of how these scores are calculated, we’ve written a blog that lays out the process – check it out here.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
