Updated: Sep 21
Three Republicans and Two Democrats Make Top 5
PHOENIX (May 25th, 2021)- As Arizona braces for another election season chock-full of competitive races, potential candidates are already jockeying for position.
In February, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) released its first-ever Power Rankings of popular (and sometimes unpopular) figures in Arizona. Now, three months later, it is updating that list to reflect changes in public opinion.
While current statewide officeholders dominate the top of the list – Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (No. 1), State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (No. 3), Attorney General Mark Brnovich (No. 4), and both of Arizona’s US Senators (Kyrsten Sinema No. 6, Mark Kelly No. 9), and Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman (No. 10) – some newcomers to the list have catapulted to the top.
This May marks the first time that OHPI included Jack McCain and Michael McGuire in its rankings, who performed supremely well for their first outing. McCain, son of Arizona’s late Senator John McCain, took the No. 2 spot, overall. McGuire, the former head of the Arizona National Guard and one of the leaders in charge of spearheading Arizona’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, came in at No. 7, overall.
“Arizona voters will decide the fates of candidates in more than 100 races next year,” says Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “With that in mind and given the closely divided nature of the state, it has never been more important to get an early look at who is going to step into the arena.”
As the individuals on this list begin to announce their intentions to run for specific offices, we can get an early glimpse into how those races will play out. Candidates from both parties are already hopping into what is shaping up to be a hotly contested gubernatorial race to replace the term-limited Doug Ducey. On the Republican side, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (No. 3) and Karrin Taylor Robson (No. 18), member of the Arizona Board of Regents, have already thrown their hats into the ring. The only Democrat on OHPI’s ranking to jump into the Governor’s race is Marco Lopez (No. 20).
In preparation for Arizona’s fourth Senate election in as many cycles, no Republican present on OHPI’s ranking has announced a run to unseat Mark Kelly (No. 9). However, in this nationally significant race, two of Kelly’s fellow members of the Top 10 – AG Mark Brnovich (No. 4), and Michael McGuire (No. 7) – have been rumored to be considering launching campaigns.
OH Predictive Insights derives its Power Rankings from data collected from recent surveys which asked voters their opinions of the more than 40 individuals and their preferred characteristics of statewide office candidates. It is worth pointing out that the ranking does not consider the potential candidate’s likelihood to run for office.
Other than a candidate’s name ID and favorability rating, OHPI engineered a “Demographic and Experience (D/E) Score” so candidates and potential candidates who are not yet unknown to the electorate are not excluded entirely. The D/E Score considers a potential candidate’s electoral history and demographic characteristics, but for a more detailed explanation on how this score is calculated, please read our previous press release or the blog article we have written on the topic.
Links to full OHPI Power Rankings, Name ID, Net Fav, and Demographic and Experience Scores, as well as crosstabs from the poll, can be found below.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from May 3rd to May 5th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 935 registered voters, with an MoE of ± 3.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
OHPI Power Score: This score considers name ID, net favorability, and OHPI’s Demographic and Experience score, but puts a greater emphasis on name ID and net favorability than the other measure.
Demographic and Experience Score: This score assigns potential candidates points based on how well their personal characteristics match voters’ preferences. For example, 38% of voters preferred a candidate who is a Democrat; thus, the Democrats got 38% of a point. Thirty-seven percent chose a Republican, so Republicans got 37% of a point – and so on. The following characteristics compose this score: party, political experience, birth state, county of residence/representation, experience as a US Senator, experience as a US Congressman, experience as a Governor, experience as a statewide office, experience as an Arizona State Senator, experience as an Arizona State Representative, electoral record, gender, age, racial/ethnic minority status, and parental status. Party, age, and gender play a larger share in these rankings than the other characteristics. Voters’ preferred characteristics were taken from OHPI’s January 2021 AZPOP. That poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from January 11th to January 18th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, and ethnicity. The sample size was 1,022 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%.
About Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights): As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.