Arizona Political Climate: Division, Division, Division
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Jun 4
- 6 min read
Updated: Jun 5
And Good News for Some Democratic Officeholders
PHOENIX (June 5, 2025)- Arizona voters support their Democratic state leaders, but the public remains split on the state’s direction, according to recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights. As the 2026 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, early data suggests the Republican Party holds a small advantage overall, but that high-profile elected Democrats are in good political shape.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 12–16, 2025, surveyed 1,026 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.06%.
A State Divided
Arizona is politically polarized: exactly 50% of voters say the state is headed in the right direction, while the other half believe it's on the wrong track – statistically equal to the February AZPOP. While some groups express cautious optimism, others remain skeptical. Democrats (51%) and Republicans (52%) show slightly more optimism than Independents (47%), and Ideological conservatives (54% wrong direction) are more pessimistic about the state’s trajectory than liberals (56% right direction) and moderates (51% right direction).
This division reflects a unique political moment where both sides of the aisle have reasons for both hope and concern. Republicans are unhappy with Democratic state leadership, while Democrats are pessimistic about Donald Trump's return to the presidency. These competing anxieties create small advantages and disadvantages for both parties as they gear up for the 2026 midterm elections.
Example: the GOP’s overall party brand is better than the Democrats’, by a hair.
Arizona is still extremely light red. Republicans currently hold a slight lead on a generic congressional ballot by 2 points, with 40% support, and are perceived as more capable of running the state by 4 points. The state was even more split in February, when Republicans led by 3 points on preferred party to run the state, and Democrats led by 1 point on a generic congressional ballot.
While Democrats have built small leads in generic ballot polling nationally, Arizona remains competitive territory where Republicans maintain their traditional edge in voter trust and institutional confidence.
“Trump won Arizona by roughly 6 points in 2024 while winning the popular vote by just under 2 points. So Trump and the GOP have a little bit more of a cushion here than they do elsewhere. They can lose a couple points of support and still end up with a low-to-mid single-digit edge,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
Trump Remains a Double-Edged Sword for Arizona Republicans
But there are some good numbers for Democrats, too. President Trump remains a deeply divisive figure in Arizona. His job approval rating sits underwater at -5%, with 46% approving and 51% disapproving of his job. In February, his rating was overall positive, with 51% approving and 48% disapproving. His favorability rating is now evenly split at 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable, reflecting deeply entrenched partisan divisions.
Republicans have overall strong favorability of Trump (net +68). Within his party, Trump-first Republicans remain nearly unanimous in their support with 96% viewing him favorably, while party-first Republicans are more measured at 77% favorable. This 19-point gap within the Republican base represents a potential vulnerability in close races, where enthusiasm and turnout margins often determine outcomes.
“This favorability gap – particularly between Trump-first and Party-first Republicans – is a warning sign for the GOP,” said David Byler. “In midterm elections, the party in power typically fails to show up – often because one wing of the party gets complacent or loses morale. Low propensity MAGA voters may fail to show up AND a slice of Trump-first Republicans could flip to Democrats, if Trump continues his current polling slide.”
For Democrats – who view Trump more unfavorably than Republicans view him favorably – Trump's mixed standing creates an opening. His double-digit net-negative favorability with Independents (-12) and internal GOP divisions suggest continued potential for Democratic appeal of candidates who can position themselves as unifying alternatives.
Democratic Leaders Shine Brighter than their Party Brand
While Republicans maintain structural advantages, individual Democratic leaders are personally well-regarded. Governor Katie Hobbs holds a net +9 job approval rating – a 3-point increase from February – and a net +13 favorability score, signaling a strong baseline of support. Senator Mark Kelly continues to benefit from his reputation as a steady, pragmatic leader, earning a net +15 favorability rating. Junior Senator Ruben Gallego has made an impressive early impression, posting the highest net favorability among major political figures at +19.
"Arizona Democrats have cracked the code on something many politicians struggle with: being more popular than their party. Hobbs, Kelly, and Gallego have built personal brands that transcend partisan labels, and that's political gold in a swing state," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Democrats have another advantage, at least for the moment – Arizonans are hurting economically, and they don’t yet believe Trump has fixed their problems.
Economic Anxiety Dominates Voter Priorities Across Party Lines
Voter concerns center on bread-and-butter economic issues that cut across traditional partisan divides. Inflation leads voter priorities at 46%, followed closely by affordable housing at 43% and immigration at 42%.
Republicans are focused on immigration (59%) – a clear priority, inflation (48%), and affordable housing (39%)
Democrats are concerned about healthcare (46%) – diverging from the economic-first mindset of Republicans, inflation (45%), and affordable housing (45%)
Independents are worried most about inflation (46%), affordable housing (45%), and immigration (40%) – aligning closely with Republicans
“Everyone, regardless of their party, cares about cost issues. When people select inflation, housing, healthcare, and related issues, they’re telling us they’re still feeling the pain of high prices. Trump hasn’t solved that,” said Byler. “There is some good news here for Trump. In a border state like Arizona, voters are always focused on immigration. That’s Trump’s signature issue. And his numbers there are solid.”
Trump’s Report Card: Strong on Border, Weak at Home
Arizona voters have also made their views clear on how Trump, in particular, is handling the most important issues of the day. We followed up with voters, asking them how Trump was handling the issues they saw as most important. Trump did well on security issues – such as immigration (67% “handling well”) and national defense (71%) – but didn’t do quite as well on key economic concerns like inflation.
More than half of Arizona voters say Trump is doing a poor job on inflation (55%) and affordable housing (58%). On voters’ other top issues, healthcare and education, majorities are dissatisfied with Trump’s performance (61% and 56%, respectively). These gaps between voter priorities and perceived presidential performance suggest potential political vulnerabilities.
"Trump was elected on two issues: immigration and the economy. Arizona voters like what they’ve seen from Trump when it comes to immigration," observed Mike Noble. "But voters don’t think he’s solved their economic problems yet. Right now, that’s the GOP’s biggest political weakness."
A Political Balancing Act
As Arizona barrels toward 2026, one thing is clear: voters are watching closely, but not committing easily. With the state’s political identity split down the middle, small shifts in turnout, messaging, and issue management could tip the balance. Structural Republican advantages remain intact, but Democrats are fielding leaders who consistently outperform the party brand, and that tension will define the races ahead. With Arizona's political balance perfectly poised and major issues unresolved, the state remains one of America's premier political battlegrounds.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 12–16, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,026 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.06%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
