AZ Governor’s Race: Biggs Gains Momentum as GOP Field Shifts
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 18 hours ago
Hobbs Still Strong, But Faces a Tough Environment
PHOENIX (May 29, 2025)- The 2026 Arizona governor’s race is beginning to take shape, and new polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) shows a rapidly evolving Republican primary. Businesswoman and 2022 gubernatorial GOP candidate Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads in the primary, but the late-breaking development of Charlie Kirk's endorsement of U.S. Representative Andy Biggs may shift the race dramatically.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 12–16, 2025, surveyed 1,026 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.06%. The total sample included 426 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.76%.
Kirk’s Exit Creates New Primary Dynamic
When asked who they would support in a hypothetical GOP gubernatorial primary, Karrin Taylor Robson currently leads the field with 24%, while Andy Biggs and Charlie Kirk were tied at 17% each. However, Kirk announced his endorsement of Biggs just as the May AZPOP exited the field – a development that could significantly reshape the primary’s trajectory. Kimberly Yee also announced her bid for State Superintendent of Public Instruction after the poll closed.
Given Biggs’ and Kirk’s shared ideological profile and overlapping favorability ratings among GOP voters (net +27 and net +28, respectively), it’s likely that some of Kirk’s supporters will consolidate behind Biggs. Kirk’s endorsement gives Biggs a path to consolidate conservative grassroots support and potentially leapfrog Taylor Robson as the frontrunner. Charlie Kirk, who spent years of his life organizing young conservatives through his organization Turning Point USA, performed better than any other name tested with young voters (32% among ages 18-29), Hispanic/Latinos (24%), and parents with children under 18 (22%) – all key groups in Arizona’s evolving political landscape. If Biggs is able to successfully convert Kirk’s supporters following the endorsement, it could help him expand his appeal beyond the traditional GOP base. As Arizona continues to trend younger, more diverse, and increasingly suburban, this endorsement not only boosts Biggs’s numbers but also gives him access to voter blocs that could prove decisive in both the primary and general contests.
“The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed,” said David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI. “Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive.”
“TPUSA is a young person thing,” added Byler. “Biggs could be getting more than an endorsement. He could be getting an army.”
Trump-Endorsed Rivals Battle for Conservative Crown
Trump’s presence looms large over the primary. In a rare move, Trump has endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs in this race. Now, the GOP field features two Trump-endorsed candidates with distinct advantages.
Businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who previously lost the 2022 gubernatorial primary, brings established political networks and substantial financial resources to her 2026 bid – Taylor Robson is outpacing Biggs by more than triple in campaign fundraising – her key advantages. She enjoys the highest net favorability among Republicans (+38) out of all the names tested, and has positioned her campaign around job creation, border security, and her business background, all of which resonate with GOP voters.
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, a conservative known for supporting Trump's allegations of election fraud in 2020, appeals to the party's grassroots base and has significant backing from Trump allies throughout Arizona. Biggs’ key advantage is Kirk’s endorsement steering his wing of the base towards Biggs, potentially giving him an upper hand on younger conservatives.
The poll also explored what qualities led GOP voters to support their candidate of choice in a primary, offering a closer look at what personal qualities resonate most with their core supporters.
Karrin Taylor Robson voters cited border enforcement (55%), loyalty to Trump (46%), and a strong focus on taxes (41%) as her top traits. Andy Biggs voters also cited border enforcement (49%), focus on taxes (39%), and Trump loyalty (37%) in high shares, but Biggs’ voters also highly rate his elected office experience (40%), ability to win the general election (39%), solving local issues (39%), cutting spending (38%), and attracting business (37%).
“There’s a lot of overlap between what Biggs supporters and Taylor-Robson supporters see in their preferred candidate,” said Byler. “To me, that suggests that we are still extremely early in this race. Voters don’t have well-formed opinions of either. Things are still fluid.”
Hobbs Leads, But the General Election Remains Competitive
Governor Katie Hobbs has a thin lead over her Republican rivals. In early hypothetical matchups for the 2026 gubernatorial race, Hobbs leads both Biggs and Taylor Robson by 2 points, but her margin is far from insurmountable with 17% undecided in each matchup. While no other Democrat has officially announced a campaign, Hobbs maintains a solid net favorability rating of +13 among all voters, providing her with a credible foundation for re-election.
Hobbs has advantages and disadvantages. Arizona is a light red swing state where Republicans have a registration advantage. Donald Trump’s approval rating has also notched down somewhat, and the party that’s out of power typically does well in midterm elections. Hobbs is an incumbent, which is an advantage – but a large number of voters remain undecided.
“Katie Hobbs has a foundation, but not a fortress,” noted Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “With Republicans energized and the Trump factor still strong, this is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race this early on.”
Looking Ahead
The Kirk endorsement represents a critical inflection point in Arizona's gubernatorial contest. Whether Biggs can successfully convert Kirk's coalition into a primary victory – and whether either Republican can ultimately challenge Hobbs' incumbency advantage – will depend on their ability to mobilize both traditional conservative voters and the newer constituencies that Kirk brought into the Republican fold.
With Arizona continuing to trend younger, more diverse, and increasingly suburban, the candidate who best navigates reaching these demographic shifts may hold the key to victory in what promises to be one of 2026's most closely watched gubernatorial contests.
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 12–16, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,026 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.06%. The total sample included 426 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.76%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.