Crime, Costs, and Confidence: Arizonans Want Security Ahead of 2026 Election
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
Tariffs Divide, Crime Concerns Dominate, and Election Trust Hinges on Cost
PHOENIX (June 3, 2025)- Arizona voters are weighing in on some of the most debated national issues. Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds where the public stands, and what still divides them on the economy, immigration, election security, and voter reform.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 12–16, 2025, surveyed 1,026 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.06%.
Tariffs: Political Divide on Economic Consequences
Trump’s focus on trade tariffs has direct implications for Arizona, given its shared border with Mexico – one of the state’s most critical trade partners. The U.S. has imposed roughly 25% tariffs on over half of Mexican imports, including vehicles, petroleum, fruits, and vegetables – industries that are central to Arizona’s economy.
According to a report by the University of Arizona, more than $25 billion in goods from Mexico pass through Arizona’s ports of entry each year. Tariff opponents would point out that these tariffs risk shrinking that volume, cutting into local revenue, and hurting related industries like warehousing, trucking, and customs services. And tariff supporters would argue that these tariffs will ultimately grow American industries, protect homegrown companies, and improve the economy.
Most Arizonans side with the tariff opponents, saying that these measures will hurt the economy. But support varies by party.
Democrats are the most concerned: 82% say tariffs are harmful
Independents are cautious: 53% believe tariffs negatively impact the economy
Republicans are more supportive: 66% have a positive view of tariffs
“This is a classic wedge issue,” said David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI. “Most Republicans trust Donald Trump’s approach – but a real chunk of the GOP sees the real-time effect on markets and feels unsure. Democrats, on the other hand, are united. And most Independents think tariffs hurt. That equation – divided Republicans, united Democrats – adds up to a majority for the anti-Trump position.”
Immigration Enforcement: Crime Severity Drives Support
Arizona voters overwhelmingly support deporting undocumented individuals who commit serious crimes, but feel conflicted when it comes to minor offenses. An 82% majority support ICE deportation for major crimes like armed robbery and drug trafficking, while 72% support deportation for white-collar crimes such as fraud and money laundering. However, only 44% support deportation for minor infractions like traffic violations.
“There are some caveats here,” added Byler. “Voters answered the question about major crimes first. If we had ordered the questions differently, the results might shift a bit. But the basic finding here is solid: Voters agree with the Republican Party’s law-and-order approach to undocumented immigrants who commit major crimes. And Arizona is more conflicted when it comes to minor infractions.”
There is a large discrepancy in support for these policies across party lines:
Republicans: Strong support across the board: Major (90%), White Collar (88%), Minor (69%)
Democrats: Support for serious crimes, oppose minor: Major (74%), White Collar (58%), Minor (68% oppose)
Independents: Major (79%), White Collar (66%), Minor (47% oppose)
Latino voters show a similar pattern to Democrats: 71% support deportation for major crimes, 58% for white-collar, but 63% oppose deporting individuals over minor infractions.
“You can tell Republicans are winning on this issue in Arizona by looking at which ideas are contentious,” said Byler. “The GOP has already won the war over whether ICE should deport undocumented immigrants who commit major crimes. If Republicans and Democrats are arguing about whether they should deport undocumented immigrants after a traffic violation – that means Republicans have already won, big picture.”
Election Security Gets a Price Tag
In the aftermath of recent election cycles – where prominent candidates disputed results – some voters and politicians pointed to specific frustrations or concerns about the voting process, and others aired a more general distrust of political elites and the system. But, regardless of the cause, the government instituted new rules. One such change is being proposed in Mohave County, where officials plan to introduce a new ballot security feature – individualized fibers embedded in each ballot – to help prevent fraud and bolster election integrity. The added measure is expected to cost between 10 and 15 cents per ballot.
While the concept has sparked interest, public opinion reveals a cost-sensitive electorate: a strong majority of Arizonans (74%) support adding security features to ballots, but that support declines depending on the financial burden. Among supporters, 41% of Arizonans support better security features, even at a higher cost, but one-third (33%) support better security only at a lower cost.
Partisan identity plays a significant role in shaping support for additional ballot security measures – especially when cost is a factor. Republicans show strong support across the board, with 86% backing additional security features, including 56% willing to support them regardless of cost and 30% supporting the measure only if the cost is lower.
Among Democrats, 66% express support, but they are more cost-sensitive: 29% back the features at any cost, while 37% would support them only if the price were reduced. Independents fall in between, with 68% overall support, 37% backing security features at any cost, and 31% supporting with cost considerations. These patterns reflect both broad bipartisan interest in election security and nuanced partisan perspectives on government spending.
“These numbers show a practical electorate,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “People want secure elections, but they also want to know how much it’ll cost them.”
Modernizing the Vote
To better understand what kind of election reform Arizonans prioritize, the May AZPOP explored a range of policy options. What emerged is strong, cross-partisan support for a balanced approach combining traditional voter ID requirements with more modernized and accessible voter registration options.
Photo ID requirements have broad support at 66% statewide, while 50% support using the last four digits of Social Security or driver's license numbers for mail voting verification. Nearly half support automatic voter registration when obtaining driver's licenses (49%) and making Election Day a state holiday (48%).
The partisan breakdown reveals different priorities within shared support. More or less, the parties are aligned on voter ID, but there are differences in the type of reform wanted:
Republicans favor security
Photo ID (74%)
SS#/DL# (45%)
Election Day holiday (45%)
Democrats favor easy access
Register with DL (58%)
Online registration (56%)
Photo ID (54%)
Independents want security and easy access
Photo ID (67%)
Register with DL (50%)
Election Day holiday (49%)
Among traditionally disenfranchised groups, support patterns suggest opportunities for inclusive reform. These groups value both accessibility and security, suggesting an opportunity for bipartisan reform framed around fairness and integrity.
High school or less education:
Photo ID (59%), SS#/DL# (42%), Election Day holiday (38%)
Hispanic/Latino:
Photo ID (59%), Election Day holiday (44%), SS#/DL# (41%)
Income under $50k:
Photo ID (63%), SS#/DL# (46%), Register with DL (45%)
“Unlike politicians, voters aren’t locked into warring camps on every single issue,” said Byler. “Voters agree with Democrats that voting should be easy for everyone who is eligible. They also agree with Republicans that elections should be secure, and that basic security measures are not a wild inconvenience. State government can work on security and access at the same time and make everyone happy – if it chooses to.”
The AZPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 12–16, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1,026 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.06%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.