Trump Approval Hits All-Time Low in AZ as Democrats Narrowly Lead Generic Ballot
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 3 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Healthcare Still Overtakes Immigration as a Top-Three Issue
PHOENIX (May 21, 2026)- A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) shows a slight leftward shift in Arizona’s political environment, with President Donald Trump at an all-time low job approval rating, Democrats with a narrow lead on the generic statewide ballot, and healthcare outpacing immigration as a top issue.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 5-7, 2026, surveyed 996 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
Trump Approval Ratings
Trump’s statewide job approval continues to deteriorate, now at net -17 as of the May AZPOP. His economic approval is even worse at net -27.
“Having tracked Trump’s Job Approval through his first and second term here in Arizona, this is the lowest we’ve ever seen it in the numbers,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Trump still holds the GOP base: 80% of Republicans approve of his job performance, as do 75% of conservatives and 83% of 2024 Trump voters. But the middle of the electorate is breaking sharply against him.
Trump’s job approval among key swing groups:
· Independents/Others: 27% approve / 66% disapprove
· Moderates: 24% / 71%
· Hispanics: 31% / 66%
· Women: 37% / 60%
· Voters 18-29: 24% / 73%
The economic numbers are even more damaging with these groups. Just 25% of Independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 69% who disapprove. Among moderates, it is 21% approve / 75% disapprove. Among women, 32% / 65%.
Arizona voters are sour on the broader economic environment, but that frustration is attaching much more clearly to Trump than to Hobbs. Hobbs’ job approval is slightly above water (net +5), and on Arizona’s economy, Hobbs is even.
“Arizona voters are clearly frustrated with the economy, but they are not blaming everyone equally,” said Mike Noble. “Trump is taking the bigger hit right now, while Hobbs is holding a much more stable position.”
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats have maintained a narrow advantage (+1) on the generic congressional ballot.
But the biggest opening for both parties is still the undecided vote. Nearly one-in-five voters (19%) are not sure who would earn their congressional vote, including 39% of Independents, 30% of voters ages 18-29, 28% of moderates, and 22% of women.
What is also interesting to note is that Independent/Other voters are currently leaning towards Democrats by a staggering 15 points; and what is keeping Republicans competitive in the state is their roughly 7.5-point voter registration advantage over Democrats.
“This is not a wave environment,” Noble said. “But the political climate has moved somewhat leftward. In Arizona, even a small shift among Independents and moderates can matter.”
Top Issues
The issue environment has not been turned upside down since December — the same four issues (inflation, affordable housing, healthcare, and immigration) remain clearly above the rest of the field.
Healthcare and immigration have fought for the No. 3 space for months, and healthcare is staying ahead of immigration as a top-three issue for Arizona voters.
These numbers show that Arizona’s issue environment is becoming more affordability-centered; voters are thinking about cost-of-living pressure more broadly — not just grocery prices or the border, but housing, medical costs, and household finances.
“When inflation, housing, and healthcare are all sitting near the top, that tells you voters are feeling affordability pressure from multiple directions,” said Mike Noble. “Immigration is still a major issue in Arizona, but the economic conversation has widened.”
Bottom Line
Trump is underwater statewide and even weaker on the economy. Hobbs is holding slightly positive job approval and is tied on economic approval. Democrats have nudged ahead on the generic ballot. And the issue environment is becoming less narrowly focused on immigration and inflation, with healthcare and housing now firmly in the top tier.
“Arizona is still Arizona — close, divided, and decided in the middle,” Noble added. “But right now, the middle of the electorate looks more skeptical of Trump and less aligned with Republicans than it did a few months ago.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 5-7, 2026 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 996 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.