AZGOV: Biggs Nears Majority as Hobbs Holds Early Edge
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 3 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Biggs Consolidates GOP Support Since February; Hobbs Maintains Stable Position in General Election
PHOENIX (May 18, 2026)- A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds Congressman Andy Biggs continuing to consolidate support in the Republican primary, while Governor Katie Hobbs maintains a narrow but stable early advantage in the general election.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 5-7, 2026, surveyed 996 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%. The total sample included 375 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.01%.
GOP Primary
Biggs has strengthened his position since the February AZPOP, moving from 40% in February to 48% in May, putting him just shy of the 50% threshold.
Biggs leads across most major GOP blocs, including:
· Men: 50% Biggs / 21% Schweikert
· Women: 46% / 15%
· Voters aged 65+: 57% / 17%
· Conservatives: 52% / 16%
· Trump supporters: 55% / 16%
· Hispanic Republicans: 57% / 9%
Schweikert’s opening is not that he is catching Biggs — it is that a third of Republicans are still unsure. That “not sure” share is especially high among women (39%), voters aged 18-44 (39%), rural Republicans (43%), and moderates (48%).
The Trump endorsement effect is still meaningful in the GOP primary: 59% of Republicans say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, including 32% much more likely, while 14% say it would make them less likely. Among Trump supporters, the effect is overwhelming: 81% say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.
“Biggs has done what a strong primary candidate needs to do — consolidate the field,” said Mike Noble, Founder & CEO of Noble Predictive Insights. “Going from 40% to 48% is a meaningful jump, and now the question is whether he can close it out.”
General Election
In the general election, Hobbs maintains a narrow but stable lead over Biggs.
February: Hobbs 42%, Biggs 37%
The February AZPOP survey did not include independent candidate Hugh Lytle, while the May survey did. Even with Lytle included, Hobbs’ edge over Biggs remains essentially intact.
Hobbs’ coalition is anchored by:
Democrats: 88%
Liberals: 77%
Harris voters: 84%
Pima County: 52%
Urban voters: 46%
Moderates: 48%
Hispanics: 41%
Biggs’ coalition is anchored by:
Republicans: 77%
Trump supporters: 85%
Conservatives: 72%
Trump 2024 voters: 74%
Rural voters: 42%
Men: 42%
Ages 45+: 42%
The gender gap remains a defining feature, though not as simple as “women vs. men.” Among men, Hobbs and Biggs are tied at 42%–42%. Among women, Hobbs leads 40%–32%, but the bigger story is that 21% of women are undecided, compared to just 10% of men.
Younger voters are also much less settled. Among voters 18-29, Hobbs leads Biggs 33%–26%, but 27% are undecided and 10% back Lytle. Among voters 30-44, Hobbs leads 41%–31%, with 17% undecided and 9% backing Lytle. By contrast, voters 65+ are more locked in: Hobbs leads Biggs 47%–42%, with only 10% undecided.
The middle of the electorate remains the key battleground. Among Independents/others, Hobbs leads Biggs 35%–22%, but 31% are undecided and another 9% back Lytle. Among moderates, Hobbs leads 48%–20%, while 22% are undecided and 7% back Lytle.
“Biggs is getting stronger with Republicans, but that strength has not yet translated into broader general election movement,” Noble said. “At the same time, Hobbs is holding her ground — even with an independent candidate added to the ballot.”
Candidate Image
Hobbs is better defined and more positively viewed statewide than Biggs:
Hobbs also has the advantage of near-universal awareness. Only 5% of voters say they have never heard of her, compared to 15% for Biggs and 48% for Lytle.
Biggs has room to grow his name ID, but also room to be defined. That matters in a race where Hobbs is already near 50% favorable and sitting at 41% on the ballot.
What Changed Since February
The movement from February to May is straightforward: Biggs is consolidating the Republican primary, but the general election has not moved with him.
Biggs gained 8 points in the GOP primary, from 40% to 48%. But in the general election, the matchup barely changed: Hobbs went from 42% to 41%, while Biggs stayed at 37%.
As the race stands today, Hobbs is in a good early position: stable vote share, positive favorability, and a lead among moderates and Independents. Biggs is closing in on the GOP nomination, but still has work to do beyond the Republican base.
“Arizona is still Arizona — close, competitive, and decided in the middle,” Noble added. “Hobbs is holding an edge, but the voters who are still unsure are exactly the voters both campaigns will be fighting over.”
###
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 5-7, 2026 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 996 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.1%. The total sample included 375 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.01%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.