NV Down-Ballot: Wide-Open Primaries, Competitive General Elections

Undecideds Dominate Key Races, Broad Support for Ballot Measures

Poll report can be found here

PHOENIX (April 2, 2026)- A new Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds down-ballot statewide races largely unsettled, with a majority of voters still undecided in key contests and no clear frontrunners emerging.

This NVPOP, conducted from March 10–13, 2026, surveyed 845 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.37%.

Lieutenant Governor

Sandra Jauregui leads the Democratic primary by 13 points at 23%, followed by BridgieNix Scheiner at 10%, while 67% remain undecided.

Jauregui is strongest among young Democrats (41% among ages 18-29) and Hispanics (31%), while Scheiner’s support coasts under 20% across most groups. The defining feature of this race is the undecided vote. Overwhelming majorities of Washoe County (77%), ages 65+ (88%), suburban (75%), and white Democrats (81%) are leaving the field largely undefined.

In hypothetical general election matchups against Stavros Anthony, Jauregui leads the Republican 37%–32%, but when paired against Scheiner, Anthony leads by 3 points.  

• Jauregui coalition: Democrats (73%), liberals (70%), Hispanics (47%), Washoe County (42%)

• Anthony coalition: Republicans (71%), 2024 Trump voters (63%), conservatives (60%), rural voters

Undecided voters are concentrated among independents (36%) and moderates (34%), reinforcing that the middle of the electorate remains up for grabs.

Jauregui (+7 net fav, 48% Name ID) and Scheiner (+8, 46% ID) are both lightly defined and liked, while Anthony has a slight advantage with higher recognition (56% Name ID) and favorability (+10 net fav).

Campaign finance is relatively even between Anthony (~$232k COH) and Jauregui (~$225k COH + PAC support).

Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO, said: “Jauregui must consolidate Democrats and hold Washoe; Anthony’s path runs through maximizing Republicans and winning over moderates.”

Secretary of State

In the general election, incumbent Cisco Aguilar leads Marchant by a moderate margin, with one-quarter of voters undecided.

Aguilar’s coalition is anchored in Democrats and Washoe voters, while Marchant relies on rural and conservative voters. Undecideds again cluster among independents, moderates, and women.

Aguilar holds a clear financial advantage (~$540k COH) compared to Marchant ($0 COH).

“Republicans need to compete in Washoe and among moderates; Aguilar already holds that ground,” said Mike Noble.

Attorney General

The survey found a marginal difference between two Democratic candidates tested in hypothetical general election matchups against Republican Danny Tarkanian. Nicole Cannizzaro leads Danny Tarkanian 35%–32%, while Zach Conine trails 33%–36%, giving Tarkanian the 3-point lead.

Cannizzaro performs better with Hispanics and swing voters, while Tarkanian consolidates Republicans and conservatives. Once again, the quarter of undecided voters is concentrated among independents, moderates, women, and Hispanics.

Cannizzaro (+6, 52% ID) and Conine (+5, 48%) are similarly defined, while Tarkanian (+7, 69%) is the best-known candidate.

Campaign finance tells a different story – the less known/liked the candidate, the deeper the pockets:

• Conine: ~$1M+ raised (campaign + PAC)

• Cannizzaro: ~$815k COH

• Tarkanian: ~$340k COH

“If I were Conine and Cannizzaro, I’d be putting my war chest to use,” said Mike Noble. “Big opportunity and means to define themselves before the primary election.”

State Treasurer

Both primaries for State Treasurer are wide open.

In both primaries, undecideds dominate across nearly every group, especially seniors (80%+) and Washoe voters (~75%).

General election matchups are uniformly tight, with all candidates clustered around 30%–32% and roughly 30% undecided.

All candidates remain lightly defined (~45% name ID, low negatives).

Campaign finance provides limited early structure:

• Dalia ~$176k raised

• Johnson ~$62k raised

“This is a true breakout race — the first candidate to build name ID likely wins,” said Noble.

Ballot Measures

Ballot measures are far more defined than candidate races.

Question 6 (Abortion Rights):

• Yes: 64%

• No: 19%

Support is broad, including:

• Democrats (82%)

• Moderates (63%)

• Even 48% of Republicans

Question 7 (Voter ID):

• Yes: 67%

• No: 17%

Support spans party lines:

• Republicans (80%)

• Democrats (57%)

• Independents (65%)

Undecided voters remain smaller but skew more moderate and Hispanic in both cases.

“These races are still in the introduction phase, but the ballot measures are much more settled,” said Mike Noble. “Voters already seem to know where they stand on the issues — but not yet on the candidates.”

As Nevada moves deeper into the 2026 cycle, most down-ballot contests remain wide open — with outcomes likely to be determined by which candidates define themselves first and win over a large, still-uncommitted electorate.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from March 10–13, 2026 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 845 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.37% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.