AZGOV GOP Primary: Biggs Goes Big Before Primary Day
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
Biggs Hits 60% Among Likely GOP Primary Voters
PHOENIX (July 7, 2026)- A new Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll of Arizona likely GOP primary voters finds Congressman Andy Biggs far out in front in Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary, with 60% support among likely GOP primary voters.
This poll was conducted from June 29-July 1, 2026, after early voting had begun and before Primary Election Day. NPI surveyed 425 likely GOP primary voters in Arizona via SMS text-to-online, yielding a margin of error of ±4.75%.
Biggs Goes Big
Biggs enters the final stretch with the lead, the base, and the early vote. According to the survey, Biggs leads with 60% support in Arizona’s GOP Primary election for governor – that puts Biggs six times ahead of Schweikert and comfortably over the majority mark.
This follows a steady consolidation pattern in NPI’s earlier AZPOP polling. Biggs was at 40% among registered Republicans in February, climbed to 48% in May, and now hits 60% among likely GOP primary voters. The surveys are not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison – this latest poll is specifically among likely GOP primary voters – but the direction is unmistakable: Biggs has moved from frontrunner to closer.
“In May, the question was whether Biggs could close it out,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Now, among likely GOP primary voters, he looks like he has. He’s not just leading – he’s lapping the field.”
Biggs Banks the Early Vote
Because this poll was in the field after early voting had already started, the numbers capture both voters who had already cast ballots and voters still left to vote.
Nearly half of likely GOP primary voters (47%) had already voted. Among them, Biggs leads 61% to 12%. Among voters who had not yet voted, he led 60% to 9%.
That means Biggs is not just leading among voters still up for grabs – he appears to have already banked a big lead with ballots already cast.
Schweikert would need a dramatic late break among the remaining electorate, but the poll does not show one forming.
The Undecided Vote Is Not a Schweikert Lifeboat
The biggest remaining bloc is undecided voters at 26%. But when undecided voters were pushed to choose, they did not break toward Schweikert.
That makes the undecided vote look less like hidden Schweikert strength and more like dissatisfaction with the field.
“Schweikert’s problem is not that there are no undecided voters left,” Noble said. “It’s that the undecided voters are not really looking his way. If there were a hidden Schweikert surge, we would expect to see it there. We don’t.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from June 29-July 1, 2026, and surveyed Arizona statewide likely GOP primary voters via SMS text-to-online. In total, NPI interviewed 425 likely voters. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the voter population by gender, region, age, party, race/ethnicity, and education. The margin of error was ±4.75%. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.