Gas Prices Are Hammering Arizona Households — 90% of Voters Concerned

Nearly 7 in 10 Voters Say Fuel Costs May Influence Vote

Poll report can be found here

PHOENIX (May 20, 2026)- A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds gas and fuel prices cutting sharply into Arizona household finances — and potentially into the 2026 electorate.

This AZPOP, conducted from May 5-7, 2026, surveyed 996 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Gas Prices Are Nearly Universal Pain

Arizona voters are overwhelmingly concerned about gas and fuel prices (90%). Concern is broad, with majorities of every key group saying they are very concerned – the only exception being Trump-first Republicans at 46% “very concerned.”

This intensity – those who are “very concerned” – is highest among Democrats (compared to Republicans and Independents) and voters who may already be feeling broader affordability pressure:

·       Democrats: 75% very concerned

·       Independents: 63%

·       Republicans: 54%

·       Voters making under $50k: 67%

·       Voters ages 45-64: 68%

·       Pima County: 68%

That makes gas prices one of the rare issues where almost everyone agrees there is a problem — even if they do not experience it or politicize it the same way.

The financial impact is just as stark: 80% of Arizona voters say rising gas and fuel prices have impacted their household finances, including 44% who say they have been impacted “a great deal.”

The strain is especially pronounced among:

·       Hispanics: 88% great + some impact / 48% a great deal

·       Voters 18-29: 90% / 49%

·       Democrats: 87% / 57%

·       Parents with children under 18: 87% / 50%

·       Voters making under $50k: 84% / 52%

Higher-income voters are not immune — 70% of voters making more than $100k say gas prices have impacted their finances — but they are much less likely to say the impact has been severe (31% “a great deal”). That gap matters. Gas prices are not just an economic indicator; they are a daily reminder of affordability pressure, especially for younger voters, Hispanic voters, parents, and lower-income households.

“Gas prices are one of the most visible ways voters feel the economy,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “You do not need to read an economic report to know what you paid at the pump.”

And It Could Matter at the Ballot Box

Gas prices are not just annoying voters — they may shape how many of them vote. More than two-thirds of Arizona voters (68%) say gas and fuel prices are likely to influence their vote in the upcoming election, including 39% who say they are very likely to do so. Majorities of all major parties say that this gas-fueled economic pressure could follow them into the voting booth.

However, the political intensity – “very likely” – is not evenly distributed:

·       Democrats: 83% likely / 61% very likely

·       Hispanics: 79% / 42%

·       Voters 18-29: 82% / 47%

·       Parents with children under 18: 80% / 43%

·       Moderates: 74% / 44%

·       Independents: 68% / 33%

Republicans are concerned about gas prices, but they are less likely than Democrats to say the issue will drive their vote: 56% of Republicans say gas prices are likely to influence their vote, compared to 83% of Democrats. Among conservatives, just 55% say the same, while 40% say gas prices are not likely to influence their vote.

That is the key political finding: gas prices are a broad concern, but the voters most likely to say the issue could affect their ballot are younger voters, Hispanics, Democrats, moderates, and parents — many of the same groups already central to Arizona’s statewide battleground.

“Gas prices are not just a Republican issue or a Democratic issue,” Noble said. “But in this poll, the political intensity is actually stronger among some of the voters Democrats need most — younger voters, Hispanics, parents, and moderates.”

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel and text-to-online survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 5-7, 2026 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 996 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.