NPI’s Pre-Primary Poll Nails GOP Primary Winners
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Jul 27
- 3 min read
From Biggs’ Blowout to Down-Ballot Races, Arizona GOP Voters Did What NPI’s Data Said They Would Do
PHOENIX (July 27, 2026)- As unofficial results from Arizona’s Republican primary election come in, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) pre-primary poll of Arizona likely GOP primary voters was right on target.
This poll was conducted from June 29-July 1, 2026, after early voting had begun and before Primary Election Day. NPI surveyed 425 likely GOP primary voters in Arizona via SMS text-to-online, yielding a margin of error of ±4.75%.
NPI’s final pre-primary survey correctly identified the leading candidate in every statewide GOP primary it tested: Governor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer.
Biggs Went Big; Results Went Bigger
NPI’s pre-primary poll showed Congressman Andy Biggs way out in front in the GOP gubernatorial primary, leading David Schweikert 60% to 10%. The actual results followed the same script, just louder. As of July 27, 2026, current unofficial results from the Arizona Secretary of State Office show Biggs winning with 74%, compared to Schweikert’s 14.4%.
NPI’s pre-primary poll didn’t just call the right winner – it called the shape of the race: Biggs had the base, the early vote, and the momentum.
“In our final pre-primary poll, Biggs wasn’t just leading – he was lapping the field,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Primary night confirmed it. The only thing bigger than his lead in our poll was his lead in the actual results.”
Down-Ballot Calls Also Hit
Governor was the headline, but the accuracy ran down the ticket. NPI’s pre-primary poll identified the current leading candidate in each of the major statewide GOP primaries tested:
Current unofficial results show Kolodin leading Swoboda 59.8% to 40.2%, and Norton leading Haley 56.4% to 43.6%. These races had massive undecided shares going into Election Day – 47% undecided in the Secretary of State race and 44% undecided in the Treasurer race – but the topline direction held.
The pre-primary poll was not a poll of record, but it was a timely, targeted survey of likely GOP primary voters – fielded after early voting began, weighted to the likely electorate, and focused on where the race actually stood heading into Election Day.
“Arizona primaries are not easy to poll,” Noble said. “The electorate is smaller, harder to model, and often still moving late. But when you understand the state, the voters, and the political environment, you can still get the story right.”
Bottom Line
NPI’s pre-primary poll saw the GOP primary clearly: Biggs was headed for a blowout, and the down-ballot leaders were in position to win. Election night delivered the receipts.
“Polling is never about magic,” Noble added. “It is about getting the electorate right, asking the right questions, and knowing what the numbers are really telling you. This one told us Biggs was going big – and Arizona GOP voters made it official.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from June 29-July 1, 2026, and surveyed Arizona statewide likely GOP primary voters via SMS text-to-online. In total, NPI interviewed 425 likely voters. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the voter population by gender, region, age, party, race/ethnicity, and education. The margin of error was ±4.75%. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
