AZGOV: Biggs Benefits from Field Consolidation, Hobbs Holds Early Edge
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 16 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Hobbs Maintains Narrow Advantage in Early 2026 Governor Matchups
PHOENIX (March 4, 2026)- A new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds Governor Katie Hobbs holding a narrow early advantage in potential 2026 general election matchups, though sizable gender divides and a meaningful bloc of persuadable voters suggest the race remains highly competitive.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 23-26, 2026, surveyed 1023 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.06%. The total sample included 384 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.99%.
GOP Primary Election
With the unexpected withdrawal of Trump-endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson from Arizona’s GOP primary contest, the Republican field has narrowed down to two: Andy Biggs and David Schweikert.
Schweikert is off to a late start in the contest, having entered the race back in October, whereas Biggs entered the contest in January 2025. With two viable candidates vying for the nomination, who stands to benefit? The answer is Andy Biggs.
*Karrin Taylor Robson exited the race after the December AZPOP, but before the February AZPOP
Biggs is ahead in every demographic category in the Republican primary. Most notably, he enjoys 2:1 support among seniors (65+ YO), a 21-point advantage with supporters of Donald Trump, and a 24-point lead with supporters of the Republican Party.
“Schweikert’s biggest advantage right now is that there is a sizeable amount of undecided voters available (approximately 40%) across key voter blocs, and the election is not for another 5 months,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “The numbers indicate Biggs benefited the most from Robson’s exit from the race, and he’s not very far from the coveted 50% threshold.”
Hypothetical General Election
Among Arizona voters, incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs holds the advantage over her potential Republican opponents:
The third-party candidate takes an important 5% of the vote off the table; however, the non-major-party candidate takes the same percentage of Republican voters as Democratic voters. The smaller undecided vote share among voters will likely firm up as engagement increases, though both potential matchups remain within striking distance.
“Hobbs is running away with this contest, although with no competitive primary to speak of – she has to feel good about the position she is currently in,” said Mike Noble.
A Pronounced Gender Gap
The most significant disparity in the race is along gender lines. In the Hobbs–Biggs matchup among registered voters:
Women back Hobbs 45%–30% (+15 D)
Men back Biggs 44%–39% (+5 R)
That 20-point swing between men and women underscores a deeply polarized electorate. This will be an interesting dynamic to keep an eye on as Hobbs maintains a double-digit advantage with women, while Biggs runs stronger with men.
Age Divides and Core Coalitions
Younger voters (ages 18–29) strongly favor Hobbs, while voters 65 and older tilt Republican, giving Biggs a modest edge among seniors. Voters aged 30–64 are more evenly divided and more undecided, making them a critical battleground bloc.
Hobbs’ strongest coalition includes women and younger voters. Biggs and Schweikert perform best among men and seniors.
The Persuadable Vote
The undecided vote — ranging from 11% among likely voters to 16% among registered voters — represents the largest opportunity for movement in the race.
Undecided voters are disproportionately:
Younger (approaching 20% among 18–29-year-olds)
Women (19% undecided among women in the Biggs matchup)
Third-party support remains limited at 5%, suggesting most late movement will consolidate toward the major-party nominees.
“This is a competitive but structurally polarized race,” said Noble. “Governor Hobbs benefits from a clear gender advantage and strength with younger voters, while Republicans are consolidating men and older voters. The decisive question will be who wins the middle — particularly women under 50 and independents who are still parked in the undecided column."
Noble added, “With double-digit undecideds among registered voters, this race is far from locked in. The candidate who can consolidate their base while making inroads with persuadable women and middle-aged voters will have the edge.”
As the 2026 cycle begins to take shape, Arizona once again appears poised for another tightly contested gubernatorial battle.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 23-26, 2026 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 1023 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.06%. The total sample included 384 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.99%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
The GOP primary poll referenced earlier in the release was conducted by NPI from December 8-11, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. Methodology and weighting were the same as the February 23-26,2026 poll, however the GOP sample size was 375 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.06%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.