NVGOV: Lombardo Keeps Pace with Ford as Undecideds Hold the Balance
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 5 minutes ago
- 5 min read
Lombardo Runs Ahead of the GOP Baseline; Ford Still Has Room to Consolidate Democrats
PHOENIX (March 30, 2026)- A new Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) finds Nevada’s 2026 governor’s race already narrowing into what looks like a highly competitive general election, with Governor Joe Lombardo and Attorney General Aaron Ford tied and a meaningful bloc of undecided voters still up for grabs.
This NVPOP, conducted from March 10–13, 2026, surveyed 845 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.37%.
GOP Gov Primary
The Republican primary for governor is virtually a non-contest, with incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo dominating both on the ballot and in underlying metrics. The governor’s 60% support effectively locks him in as the GOP nominee in the General Election.
Among Republicans, Lombardo posts a 78% favorable / 16% unfavorable (+62) image and is nearly universally known, while alternative Republican candidates lag far behind with significantly lower awareness and weaker favorability.
The poll also shows that Trump remains a meaningful force inside the Republican electorate, even if he is no longer the central story of this race. In the GOP primary electorate, 67% say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, including 39% who say much more likely, while just 24% say it would make them less likely.
Lombardo’s strength is rooted in his coalition: in both support and favorability, he wins strong majorities of key Republican factions – Trump-first Republicans, GOP identifiers, and conservatives – leaving little room for a viable primary challenge. Combined with his overwhelming name ID advantage and consolidated base, the data indicates the GOP primary is essentially locked, allowing Lombardo to shift his efforts towards the general election.
Gov General Election
If the election were held today, Joe Lombardo edges Aaron Ford 39% to 38%, with 6% backing a third-party candidate and 17% undecided.
The broader structure of the race is just as important as the topline: Lombardo is the only Republican tested who keeps Ford from opening a clear lead. In alternate matchups, Ford leads Irina Hansen 37%-32%, Matthew Winterhawk 37%-31%, and Jose M. Zalaya 36%-30% – another indicator that the GOP primary is a lock, and that Lombardo’s incumbency and crossover appeal are what keep this race in dead-heat territory.
That finding is especially notable because Nevada voters still lean slightly Democratic on a generic statewide ballot. In this poll, 40% say they would back a generic Democratic candidate for statewide office, compared with 36% for the Republican, while 19% are unsure. Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO, explains: “In other words, Lombardo is running about 3 points ahead of the generic Republican, while Ford is running about 2 points behind the generic Democrat. That is usually the profile of an incumbent who has built a personal vote, and of a challenger who still has room to consolidate his own side.”
“Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party,” said Mike Noble, Founder & CEO of Noble Predictive Insights. “The generic ballot says Nevada still leans a bit blue, but Lombardo’s personal brand, job image, and financial position are keeping him highly competitive.”
In terms of favorability among all voters, Ford is on positive ground at 40% favorable / 33% unfavorable, a +7 net, but he is less defined: 19% have no opinion of him and 8% have never heard of him. Lombardo, however, is sitting even more comfortable with a net +11 favorability (49% favorable / 38% unfavorable) and a 97% name ID. Ford still has an opportunity to define himself to the remaining persuadables – before someone else does.
Lombardo’s coalition is anchored where one would expect: he performs best among Republicans (76%), supporters of Donald Trump (79%), supporters of the Republican Party (80%), conservatives (69%), ages 65+ (55%), white voters (49%), and suburban voters (44%). He also leads Ford among men, 45%-35%, and runs particularly well with rural voters, 41%-35%. Those numbers show that while Trump-world Republicans remain central to Lombardo’s base, his path is broader than just the MAGA lane; he is also holding the suburban and senior-heavy blocs that often decide close statewide contests in Nevada.
Ford, meanwhile, draws his strongest support from the modern Democratic coalition: Democrats (76%), liberals (72%), Hispanic voters (47%), urban voters (43%), Washoe County voters (43%), and 2024 Harris voters (67%). He also leads among women (40%-34%) and voters ages 18-29 (45%-25%). That is a strong starting coalition, but it is not yet fully consolidated. The fact that Ford is sitting below 40% against Lombardo while carrying three-quarters of Democrats suggests he still needs to grow his appeal among independents and moderates if he wants to turn a structurally competitive race into a clear advantage.
Campaign finance reinforces that dynamic. Nevada Independent reporting on the state’s first major 2026 fundraising deadline found Lombardo’s political war chest at roughly $15 million, with more than $9 million cash on hand. Ford, on the other hand, is working with roughly $2.7 million in his war chest with more than $2 million cash on hand.
The most important voters in this race, however, are the ones who have not made up their minds. The 17% undecided bloc is driven by Independents, moderates, Hispanics, women, and Washoe County. Ford currently has stronger leads among more of these groups than Lombardo.
That split is meaningful: Ford holds advantages with Hispanics and in Washoe County, while Lombardo is competitive with independents and moderates — reinforcing that these voters are not locked in and will likely decide the race late.
Noble added, “Ford absolutely has a path here, but the remaining undecideds are not easy partisans. They’re more moderate, more independent, and less locked in. The candidate who gives those voters permission to make this race about competence, affordability, and stability will have the edge.”
As Nevada moves toward 2026, the contours of the race are already clear: Lombardo has turned what could have been a generic partisan deficit into a true toss-up, while Ford still has real upside if he can consolidate the soft Democratic vote and win the middle. For now, the governor’s race is exactly what Nevada is known for — close, polarized, and not decided until the very end.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from March 10–13, 2026 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 845 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.37% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.