Fontes and Mayes Lead Down-ballot; Yee Holds Narrow Edge for Schools Chief
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 10 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Democrats Lead Secretary of State and Attorney General by 6, Superintendent Race More Competitive
PHOENIX (August 25, 2026)- Arizona’s statewide ballot remains competitive below the governor's race. Among likely voters, Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by 6 points; Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen by 6 points; and Republican Kimberly Yee holds a narrow 3-point edge over Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
These findings are part of Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). This AZPOP was conducted from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed 1040 registered Arizona voters, including 923 likely voters, yielding margins of error of +/- 3.0% and +/- 3.2%, respectively.
Secretary of State
Fontes leads Kolodin 41% to 35% among likely voters, with Green Party candidate Duwayne Collier at 3%, another candidate at 2%, and 20% undecided. Fontes holds a 6-point advantage, but neither candidate reaches a majority, and a large share of voters are still up for grabs.
Among Independent likely voters, Fontes leads Kolodin 42% to 16%. But the race remains fluid within this group, with 34% undecided. Among Republican likely voters, Kolodin leads Fontes 72% to 7%, with 17% undecided. Among Democratic likely voters, Fontes leads Kolodin 83% to 2%, with 11% undecided.
"Fontes has built a clear advantage, and Independents are a major reason why," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "But with 1 in 5 likely voters overall and roughly one in three Independents still undecided, Kolodin still has room to change the race."
Attorney General
Kris Mayes receives 44% in the Attorney General contest, compared with 38% for Warren Petersen, 2% for another candidate, and 16% undecided. Mayes leads by 6 points, but she remains below a majority.
Mayes’ advantage is especially pronounced among Independent likely voters, where she leads Petersen 44% to 20%; 32% remain undecided.
Among Republican likely voters, Petersen leads Mayes 77% to 11%, with 11% undecided. Among Democratic likely voters, Mayes leads Petersen 85% to 4%, with 11% undecided. Petersen is more consolidated within the Republican coalition than Kolodin: he receives 86% among Trump-First Republicans and 74% among Party-Loyalists.
"Mayes is holding together a strong Independent coalition, but the undecided share keeps the race open," said Noble. "Petersen needs to make the contest more competitive outside the Republican base before those voters lock in."
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Kimberly Yee holds the only Republican lead in the three down-ballot contests, but it is also the narrowest and falls within the poll’s margin of error. Yee receives 40% to Teresa Leyba Ruiz’s 37%, while 3% select another candidate and 20% remain undecided.
Independent likely voters currently lean the other way: Ruiz receives 34% to Yee's 26%, and 35% are undecided – the largest Independent undecided share of the 3 down-ballot races.
Among Republican likely voters, Yee leads Ruiz 78% to 6%, with 13% undecided. Yee receives 86% among Trump-First Republicans and 75% among Party-Loyalists. Among Democratic likely voters, Ruiz leads Yee 78% to 5%, with 15% undecided.
The contest also has the sharpest generational divide. Ruiz leads among likely voters ages 18-29, 42% to 33%, and among voters ages 30-44, 39% to 35%. Yee leads among voters ages 45-64, 46% to 32%, and among voters 65 and older, 42% to 39%.
"The Superintendent race is the clearest turnout contest on the down-ballot," said Noble. "Younger voters favor Ruiz, older voters favor Yee, Independents remain unsettled, and neither candidate has enough of an advantage to coast."
“Taken together, the down-ballot landscape shows Democrats in stronger position in the Secretary of State and Attorney General races, while the Superintendent contest remains the clearest toss-up. Across all three races, high undecided shares — especially among Independents — leave room for movement before Election Day.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed Arizona registered voters via opt-in online panel. In total, we interviewed 1040 registered voters and 923 likely voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The likely voter subgroup was weighted by the same demographic categories although modeled to NPI’s current projected turnout of the electorate. The margin of error was +/- 3.04% for registered voters and +/- 3.23% for likely voters. *Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
