Encouraging Signs for Trump in the Grand Canyon State
PHOENIX (November 14, 2023)- T-minus one year from the general election – and only months away from the first presidential primaries – the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) found Donald Trump continuing his upward trend among Arizona voters in both the GOP primary and a hypothetical matchup with Joe Biden.
This AZPOP, conducted from October 25–31, 2023, surveyed 1,010 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
2024 GOP Primary
Despite some shuffling among the single-digit-support candidates since July, it’s still Trump and DeSantis in the top two with Trump securing more than half of GOP voters’ support in a crowded field. DeSantis falls at a distant second while Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley trailing closely behind.
*Note: Mike Pence and Tim Scott dropped out of the GOP Presidential Primary race after this AZPOP poll closed.
Even one-versus-one in a hypothetical head-to-head between Trump (68%) and DeSantis (32%), Trump leads DeSantis 2:1, gaining an additional 6 points since the July AZPOP.
Party v. Trump
NPI also asked Republicans whether they considered themselves primarily supporters of Trump or the broader GOP. Age is the key dividing line.
Older Republicans don’t like to think of themselves as tied to one man – the older the GOP voter, the less likely they are to consider themselves Trump-over-Party. Given this trend, Trump may become more popular within the GOP as older voters leave the electorate.
“Older Republicans have stuck with the GOP as individual leaders like Reagan, Bush, and Trump have come and gone. The Republican Party, as an institution, matters to them," said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. "But younger Republicans haven’t built that bond. For young Republicans, Trump defines the party. And they’re loyal to him.”
Biden v. Trump
The October poll shows encouraging signs for Trump in the Grand Canyon State in a hypothetical matchup with Joe Biden. While 16% of voters remain unsure of who they will vote for, Trump holds an 8-point lead over Biden. Although Trump’s 8-point lead is slightly more Republican than other recent polls, it is something we would expect from a national race where Trump has a small lead.
Byler said “An eight-point lead for Trump is striking, but not surprising. Poll averages have Trump ahead of Biden by about a point nationally – that's a five-point swing from the 2020 results. If Arizona – one of the most closely contested states of 2020 – also swung that much, we’d expect individual polls to give Trump a mid-to-high single-digit lead. That’s exactly what our poll – and other recent surveys – have shown.”
In battleground Arizona, unity within each party and age play a meaningful role. There is more unity among Republicans than there is among Democrats and Independents are leaning slightly right, helping push Trump up the ladder. Trump has a strong hold on the younger voters of his party while younger Democrats are significantly more Party-over-Biden – another leg up for Trump.
Biden v. DeSantis
Nearly one-quarter of voters are unsure about Biden versus DeSantis, and the Florida Governor only leads by 3 points. Biden and DeSantis have equal shares of support from their respective parties and are also statistically tied among Independents.
“If DeSantis wins the GOP nomination, Republicans will get to know him better – and his share of the GOP vote will likely go up. And once Democrats get to know DeSantis, they’ll likely rally to Biden,” said Byler. “Both parties still have a path to victory in Arizona – whether or not Trump is on the ballot.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 25–31, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,010 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.