Arizona's GOP Remains Divided as Trump's Lead Widens
PHOENIX (August 8, 2023)- Arizona’s Republican electorate continues to have an interesting divide in their party while Trump’s lead in a GOP Primary continues to expand. The latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) – formerly OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) – dives deeper into former President Donald Trump’s influence among Arizona Republicans and the shaping of next year’s GOP Presidential Primary.
This AZPOP, conducted from July 13 – 17, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%. The sample included 346 Republicans yielding a margin of error of ±5.27%.
In previous AZPOPs, the poll asked GOP voters to describe themselves as one of two options: Supporter of Donald Trump or Supporter of the Republican Party. The July AZPOP sought to dig deeper into this GOP division in Arizona by adding a third option: Supporter of both. According to this poll, half of Republicans consider themselves supporters of the GOP, while 25% express their loyalty to Trump, and the remaining 25% view themselves as both party and Trump supporters. This finding suggests that a majority of Arizona Republicans still hold their identification with the party, even as Trump's influence remains prominent.
The poll found that the divisions in loyalty primarily revolve around affluence, with college-educated voters and those with a household income of $100,000 or more being more likely to prioritize the party over Trump (65% each). Conversely, voters with high school or less education and household incomes below $50,000 are key drivers of the Trump supporter group (39% and 31%, respectively).
"The influence of Donald Trump among Republicans remains strong, but the party is not entirely monolithic in its loyalties,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “The wealth divide in party versus Trump loyalty is a significant finding, indicating that economic factors and platforms may play a big role in shaping voters' preferences come election season."
Trump's Leadership in the Party
Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans see Donald Trump as the undisputed leader of the GOP. Rural, less affluent voters are more likely to agree, as well as supporters of Trump over the party and supporters of them both. Maricopa County, more affluent voters, and party loyalists are more likely to disagree.
GOP Presidential Primary
Trump maintains a strong position in both head-to-head and crowded primary scenarios. In a matchup against Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump holds a significant lead with 62% (up 3 points from April) supporting him compared to DeSantis' 38%. The analysis shows that Trump's 24-point lead is consistent across various demographics, except for a few holdouts for DeSantis:
· Maricopa County (44%)
· Ages 55+ (42%)
· College degree (53%)
· HHI $100k+ (54%)
· Party Loyalists (64%)
In a larger field with several other candidates in the mix, Trump's lead expands to +31, with 50% supporting him and DeSantis in second at only 19%. Notably, while other non-Trump and non-DeSantis candidates struggle to gain traction, Vivek Ramaswamy is approaching double-digit support at 9%, putting him in third place.
*Note: the list of names tested was changed from the April AZPOP to the July AZPOP to best reflect the most likely GOP Primary field
"We know GOP voters have coalesced around Trump and DeSantis as the leading choices, but it looks like some ‘Ramaswa-mentum’ is budding – he’s the only non-Trump/DeSantis candidate to poll this close behind DeSantis in any of our AZPOPs this year," said Mike Noble.
Conservative vs. Moderate Appeal
The poll results show that 57% of Republicans prefer a candidate who appeals to conservatives, while 43% prefer a candidate who appeals to the middle. Demographic splits look similar to those among the Trump vs. party vs. both divide, though parental status appears to be an additional determinant in preferences for a candidate’s appeal.
"The GOP's desire to turn out the base is evident in the data; however, if they want to walk away with more W’s in the next General election, they would be wise to focus their campaign strategy more on Independent/moderate voters in the final stretch," said Noble.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 13 – 17, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,000 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. The sample included 346 Republicans yielding a margin of error of ±5.27%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.