Nevadans Ready to Usher in Change
LAS VEGAS (March 27, 2024)- As the deadline to submit signatures for ballot measures in the November 5, 2024 election approaches, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) sheds light on the current and potential measures at play. Analysis of the poll’s findings reveals the enthusiasm for confirmed and potential ballot measures.
This NVPOP, conducted from February 27 – March 5, 2024, surveyed 829 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.4%.
In 2024 there will be five confirmed ballot measures and seven potential measures. This NVPOP poll asked about three of the confirmed measures and two of the potential measures. Nevada voters gave majority support on three of the four measures directly tested – the remaining measure was split three ways. One measure, which includes two changes to elections, was portion-tested – that is, respondents were asked if they support both parts, one part, or no parts of the measure.
Confirmed Ballot Measures:
Question 1: Removing the constitutional status of the Nevada Board of Regents
After skirting constitutional protection removal in 2020 (50.15% Oppose/49.85% Approve), bi-partisan efforts in the legislature led to the passage of a bill that would remove the constitutional status of the Nevada Board of Regents, once in 2021 and again in 2023. Now, the Nevada Board of Regents, a group of 13 elected individuals who oversee the state’s universities and colleges, as well as the Desert Research Institute, will face Nevadans once again in 2024. Despite bi-partisan support from the legislatures, Nevada is unsure how they will vote on the issue, with the result rendering a three-way split. Among parties, Independents are the most opposed, while Republicans and Democrats share statistically equal levels of support.
Both Trump-first Republicans (44%) and Biden-first Democrats (44%) registered high support for the measure, suggesting either a desire for bi-partisan control or hyper-polarization of higher education, as both parties could be seeking to control the education system. Voters with post-graduate degrees (42%) do not support this measure, nor do those who live in Washoe County (39%). However, just under half of Nevada natives (49%) and women (44%) are still unsure how they will vote on this measure in 2024.
“In 2020, the measure was narrowly defeated, and despite the bipartisanship this bill saw in the legislature, Nevadans are not sure where they stand,” said NPI data analyst and Las Vegas local Maddison Westcott. “It is rare to see this level of similar sentiment on an issue from Republicans and Democrats. Are the parties ready to set aside their differences when it comes to higher education? Or are both parties grasping for control? Data is currently mixed, and we may not know for certain until we see what happens in November.”
Question 3: Providing open top-five primary and ranked-choice voting
Following the state’s amendment process, Question 3 will be voted on by Nevadans for the second time in the last two years. If Nevadans pass the measure, the primaries will be opened, and ranked-choice voting will be initiated for general elections. In 2022, the measure passed 52.94%/47.06%. This poll shows that 55% of respondents support at least one part of the measure, 19% of respondents do not support the measure at all, and just over one-fourth of respondents are unsure.
Despite opposition from key state democrats, 6 in 10 Democratic voters support some part of this measure. Those who are still on the fence regarding the measure are True Independents – Independents who don’t report leaning towards the GOP or the Democrats (38%) –, those who reported living in a rural geographical area (35%), and those who have lived in Nevada for less than five years (35%). Conservative Republicans (35%) and voters aged 65+ (34%) do not support either portion of the measure.
Question 5: Tax exemption for child and adult diapers
Sales tax exemptions are not new to the state of Nevada; in 2018, voters removed the tax on feminine hygiene products and medical equipment. Now, Nevada could become the twentieth state to exempt sales tax on child and adult diapers, joining states like California and Texas. This ballot measure, stemming from a legislative referral, is largely supported by Nevadans (71%).
The groups most supportive of this measure are Liberals (87%) and Liberal Democrats (87%), followed closely by Washoe County voters (82%). Over one-fifth of True Independents and voters who have lived in Nevada for 5-10 years (22% each) are opposed to the measure. True Independents also were unsure (30%) how they would vote on the measure, joined by those whose household income is less than $50k a year (22%) and those with a high school level education (22%).
Potential Ballot Measures:
There are currently seven potential ballot measures for the 2024 election cycle. The official status of these measures will be known after June 24, 2024, the last day for groups to submit the signatures necessary for the measure to appear on the ballot. This poll asked about two.
Potential Change to State Statute: Capping Payday Loans
Currently, there is no limit on the interest of a payday loan in Nevada – this measure seeks to establish a cap of 36%. Two-thirds of Nevada voters favor a cap on these loan types, including 74% of Democrats.
The highest level of support comes from subgroups of the Democratic party: Liberal Democrats (79%), Party-first Democrats (75%), and Democrats with Independents who tend to vote left (75%). Other key supporters include voters with a household income over $100k (75%). True Independents (24%), those who are not White (Hispanics: 22%, non-White/non-Hispanics: 22%), and voters aged 18-34 years old (22%) are the most opposed to the measure. Nevada natives (29%) and those who have lived in Nevada for less than five years (26%) are unsure, as well as True Independents (28%).
Potential Change to State Constitution: Protecting the right to an abortion in Nevada
After a legal battle, abortion activists received the approval to circulate their petition. Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom has until June 26 to collect valid signatures for an amendment to the constitution certifying the right to an abortion in the state, which will be presented to voters in November. The NVPOP finds a majority of Nevadans (66%) would support this amendment.
Democrats (83%) and Independents (72%) are spearheading the support for the potential ballot measure. Although they give the lowest support of the parties, nearly half of Republicans (47%) are in favor of the proposed amendment. However, 16% of Independents and Republicans are unsure how they would vote on the measure. Interestingly, 17% of respondents who reported believing abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances were also unsure how they would vote on this ballot measure.
“Most Nevadans want abortion to be legal at least some of the time. And the vast majority say they’re in favor of this amendment,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “At the same time, Trump leads Biden in this poll. The takeaway: Voters lean towards Democrats on abortion, but that’s not the only issue at play in this election.”
Looking Ahead to 2026
Potential Legislative Referral: Nevada State Lottery
Establishing a lottery in the state of Nevada has been rumored for many years. While there is no evidence to suggest this measure will appear on the 2024 ballot, rumors have swirled regarding a 2026 appearance. This poll gauged current support for a Nevada lottery and found that three-fourths of voters are in favor.
Support is highest among the different flavors of Democrats (82%): Party-first Democrats (84%), Moderate Democrats (82%), Liberal Democrats (82%), and Biden-first Democrats (81%). Opposition is more varied, with Trump-first Republicans (21%), Hispanic/Latinos (19%), and voters aged 18-34 years old (17%) being the most opposed. Native Nevadans and True Independents (20% each) are still unsure how they would vote on this measure.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 27 – March 5, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 829 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.