Voters’ and Candidates’ Stances on Abortion Will Influence Ballot Box Decisions
PHOENIX (March 29, 2024)- The topic of abortion is shaping up to play a major role in the 2024 elections, especially in a battleground state like Nevada. Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) gauged Nevada voter sentiment on abortion and how it will impact their voting behaviors in November.
This NVPOP, conducted from February 27 – March 5, 2024, surveyed 829 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.4%.
Stance on Abortion
The poll found that Nevada voters, across parties, overwhelmingly do not want to ban abortion outright. Overall, half of Nevada voters want some restrictions on abortion, followed by 45% who say it should be legal under any circumstances. Only 6% of voters believe abortion should be illegal in all cases.
Nevada Republicans are not as head-strong regarding abortion; around two-thirds of Republicans and 62% of self-identifying conservatives support the legality of abortion in some circumstances. Sizeable majorities of subsets of GOP voters agree:
· Party-first Republicans: 72%
· Conservative Republicans: 69%
· Trump-first Republicans: 64%
· Moderate Republicans: 60%
However, conservative Republicans (16%) and Trump-First Republicans (15%) were also most likely to say abortion should never be legal.
“Nevada is more pro-choice than pro-life,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “But the plurality of Nevadans want something between a complete ban on abortion and unlimited access. Politicians who can thread that needle – proposing the limits on abortion that the public wants without veering too far to either side – will win on this issue.”
Among groups most likely to be directly impacted by abortion laws – women, young people, and mothers – a majority of women (52%) and voters ages 18-34 (53%) want legal abortions in all cases, as well as a near-majority of women with children under the age of 18 (48%). Women with no children – another key demographic impacted most directly by abortion laws – are the most likely of these groups to say abortion should be legal in any circumstances (63%).
Despite being an attention-grabbing topic for the media, less than 1 in 5 voters say abortion is a top-3 issue facing Nevada – only 1 in 20 say it is the top issue. The voters who say abortion is the No. 1 issue facing Nevada are much more likely to support unfettered access to abortion.
Voting Impact
Countless reporters have argued that abortion will play a large role in 2024 – and Nevada’s electorate agrees. A large majority of Nevada voters (79%) say a candidate’s stance on abortion will be at least moderately impactful on their vote.
Democrats are the most likely to say that abortion will be “very impactful” – including majorities of liberal Democrats (60%), Party-first Democrats (57%), and liberals (57%). Women (41%) were much more likely than men (26%) to report abortion as being “very impactful” in their voting choices.
Voters between 55 and 64 years old (18%), conservatives (15%), conservative Republicans (16%), and Party-first Republicans (15%) were the driving groups for those who found the issue to be “least impactful” to their vote.
“Our polling explains exactly what we’ve seen in special election turnout data across the nation. Abortion is an issue that brings Democrats to the polls – and that high enthusiasm has allowed them to beat Republicans in low-turnout special elections,” said Byler. “And, right now, Republicans don’t really know how to message on this issue. They don’t have a clear, single stance. And that’s an advantage for Democrats.”
Presidential Expectations
This NVPOP asked voters what they think the current frontrunners in the presidential election would attempt to do about abortion if either were to win. The data shows that voters mainly expect Donald Trump to ban abortion entirely and Joe Biden to increase access. However, 1 in 5 voters are not sure what either candidate would do.
One-third of voters expect Trump to ban abortion altogether, which puts him on the wrong side of the issue in the eyes of Nevada voters who overwhelmingly do not want a ban – including 88% of Trump’s own party. Most voters think that Biden would attempt to leave the current laws alone or increase access – a position that, in general, has benefited Democrats and lines up better with public opinion.
However, this data does not signify a complete victory for Democrats – Democratic messaging associating Trump with Dobbs and the farthest right positions on abortion hasn’t yet landed. More than 2 in 5 Nevada voters either don’t know Donald Trump’s position (21% not sure) or think his actions will lean more pro-choice (leave laws alone: 16%, increase access: 6%). Additionally, a significant share of voters don’t really understand Biden’s position, with 19% unsure and another 19% believing he will restrict or ban abortion.
“It’s normal for voters to not know exactly where each candidate stands on each issue. People lead busy lives and some don’t see abortion as a top issue. We’d expect some of them to be unable to correctly figure out whether a candidate is pro-life or pro-choice,” said Byler. “But, that being said, we can see that Trump is still somewhat undefined on this issue. That leaves a little bit of room for Trump to distance himself from the most extreme abortion positions – if he chooses to do so.”
Potential Abortion Amendment
The right to an abortion has been protected in Nevada since the passage of Question 7 in 1990, which permitted an abortion up to the 24-week gestational period and prohibited the legislature from overturning this decision without a vote by the people. Now, interest groups are looking for further protections with an amendment to the state constitution. If the Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom PAC collects enough signatures in time, the measure will be on the ballot in November. According to the NVPOP, 68% of Nevada voters would support such an amendment.
An abortion amendment would be a wedge issue that favors Democrats, uniting Independents and Democrats and dividing Republicans. Majorities of liberal Democrats (92%) and moderate Democrats (72%), as well as Independents (72%) and moderate Republicans (55%) would support an amendment. Only a plurality of conservative Republicans (48%) would oppose it.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 27 – March 5, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 829 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.