Trump Approval Falls to Lowest Level Ever Recorded by AZPOP
- Noble Predictive Insights
- 1 hour ago
- 4 min read
Voters Give President Low Marks on Economy and Iran; Most Want to Move on from 2020
PHOENIX (August 27, 2026)- As an election-year summer draws to a close in Arizona, the pieces of another yet divided electoral environment are falling into place. This finding is part of Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP).
This AZPOP was conducted from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed 1040 registered Arizona voters in Arizona, including 923 likely voters, yielding margins of error of ±3.0% and ±3.2%, respectively.
Direction of Arizona
Voters in the Grand Canyon State are continuing their years-long trend of disagreement over which direction the state is headed in. Beginning in 2025 – coinciding with the second inauguration of Donald Trump – voters have been in a near deadlock over whether Arizona is on the right track or is off in the wrong direction. This is a distinct difference from the last three years of the Biden administration, when a 10- to 15-point majority of voters thought the state was off on the wrong track.
“With Democrats in the highest state offices at home and Republicans in control of the government in Washington, it’s no wonder voters can’t agree,” said Noble Predictive Insights’ Founder & CEO Mike Noble. “Everyone has a little to like and a lot to complain about.”
Political Figure Favorability
At a personal level, individual Democratic officeholders are more popular than some high-level Republicans. Arizona’s Governor and two Senators – Katie Hobbs, Mark Kelly, and Ruben Gallego – boast 10+ point positive net favorability ratings, while President Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and the Republican Gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs are all below water or at the water line.
Perceptions of the parties themselves are evenly divided, with the Democratic brand holding a slight edge in popularity over the Republican one.
“The personal popularity of Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, and Ruben Gallego comes from more than a party label,” said Noble. “A generic Democrat can’t expect to replicate it just with a ‘D’ next to their name.”
Donald Trump Job Approval
While voters’ opinion of the direction of Arizona has held remarkably steady over the Second Trump Administration, their perception of Donald Trump has not. From NPI’s first AZPOP of the Second Trump administration, the president’s net job approval rating has fallen from +3 (50% approve; 47% disapprove) to -19 (39% approve; 58% disapprove). That marks Trump’s lowest net job approval rating ever recorded by AZPOP, falling below his previous low of -13 following the events of January 6, 2021. Although at a low watermark for his second term, Donald Trump has not hit the record low approval rating that Joe Biden set in July 2022 and April 2023: -24.
“Up to this point, Donald Trump has proven his support has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Joe Biden,” said Noble. “We’ll see if that holds up if the Iran War, the economy, and other tripping points continue to plague the administration.”
Diving into specific policy areas of Donald Trump’s second term in office, this AZPOP finds voters less than thrilled with his handling of the conflict in Iran and the economy. As mentioned previously, Donald Trump’s overall approval rating is 19 points underwater (39 percent approve; 58 percent disapprove). The president gets lower marks on how he has been conducting the military operations in Iran (Net -25) and how he has been steering the economy (Net -25).
“During his first term in office ‘…but the economy’ was a common remark among supporters of Donald Trump. ‘I don’t like Trump on x, y, or z…but look at the economy.’” said Noble. “That rings less true this time around.”
Perceptions of the 2020 Election
Despite being nearly six years in the rearview mirror, politicians or political commentators from time to time may still reference the events surrounding the 2020 election. By and large, Arizona voters would prefer they didn’t. Seven in 10 (69%) wish that discussions of the 2020 election would move on, while less than one quarter of voters (21%) believe there are still important issues that need to be addressed.
There is broad ideological agreement with this opinion. Three quarters (74%) of Democrats, alongside 68 percent of Independents and 66 percent of Republicans, would prefer that the subject would be dropped.
“In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Arizona voters have had to hear about ‘Sharpiegate,’ a recount, oceans of political division and hatred, and so much more” said Noble. “Frankly, most voters just want people to shut up about it.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from August 10-13, 2026, and surveyed Arizona registered voters via opt-in online panel. In total, we interviewed 1040 registered voters and 923 likely voters (determined via screening questions). The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The likely voter subgroup was weighted by the same demographic categories although modeled to NPI’s current projected turnout of the electorate. The margin of error was +/- 3.04% for registered voters and +/- 3.23% for likely voters. *Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
