Robson Rewrites the 2022 Playbook as She Opens with an Early Lead in Arizona GOP Primary

Trump’s Endorsement Edges Robson Ahead of Biggs

Poll report can be found here

PHOENIX (August 28, 2025)- Arizona Republicans are preparing for another high-stakes governor's race, but this time the dynamics look dramatically different. In 2022, Karrin Taylor Robson was overshadowed by Kari Lake's lock on Donald Trump's endorsement and the loyalty of MAGA voters. Now, with Trump in her corner, Robson is entering the contest with a fundamentally stronger hand and a clearer path to victory.

Rather than watching the party divide cleanly between Trump's candidate and the establishment's choice, voters are witnessing a more complex race take shape. According to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI), Robson is competing directly for the Trump lane while simultaneously appealing to Republicans who want to keep the party's broader coalition intact.

This AZPOP, conducted from August 11–18, 2025, surveyed 948 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.18%. The total sample included 385 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.99%.

Robson Builds Commanding Lead in GOP Primary

The survey reveals Robson commanding 37% of the Republican primary vote compared to just 27% for Andy Biggs, with 36% of voters remaining undecided. Both candidates have gained ground since earlier polling waves, but Robson's trajectory has been significantly steeper and more consistent. She has climbed dramatically from 11% in February to 24% in May and now to 37%, while Biggs has risen more modestly from 14% to 17% to 27%.

Age demographics continue to play a crucial role in shaping the race. Among Republicans aged 65 and older, Robson maintains a substantial 41% to 28% advantage over Biggs. Perhaps most tellingly, Robson has managed to edge slightly ahead among "Trump first" Republicans with 33% compared to Biggs' 29%, while enjoying a comfortable 42% to 28% margin among "Party-first" Republicans.

“Robson is playing a very different game than last cycle,” said NPI CEO & Founder, Mike Noble. “She’s running ads touting Trump’s endorsement while also solidifying support among more Traditional Republicans. That combination is giving her an early edge.”

What Republicans Value in a Candidate

The AZPOP survey also examined what qualities Republican voters are prioritizing when evaluating potential gubernatorial candidates. Strong border enforcement emerged as the top concern, with 52% of Republicans naming it as a crucial factor. Loyalty to Donald Trump ranked second at 40%, followed closely by cutting government spending and attracting business to Arizona, both at 38%. The ability to solve local issues like water availability rounded out the top concerns at 35%.

The supporter coalitions reveal distinct philosophical differences within the party. Robson's backers demonstrate more pragmatic tendencies, with 24% emphasizing a willingness to break with Trump when necessary, compared to just 14% of Biggs supporters. Similarly, 19% of Robson supporters value the ability to compromise with Democrats compared to only 12% for Biggs, and 40% cite private business experience as important compared to 20% for Biggs supporters.

Conversely, Biggs' supporters lean heavily into traditional conservative credentials. Among his base, 43% prioritize cutting government spending compared to 35% of Robson's supporters, 27% emphasize pro-life abortion policies compared to 18% for Robson, and 52% value experience in elected office compared to just 17% for Robson supporters.

“Republican voters are signaling two very different paths forward,” said Noble. “Robson’s coalition is driven by pragmatism and business-minded leadership, while Biggs’ base is looking for a fighter who embodies traditional conservative values. That tension is defining the GOP primary right now.”

General Election Landscape Remains Highly Competitive

While the primary is front and center, the general election remains a razor-thin toss-up – as it so often is in Arizona. In a hypothetical matchup between Robson and Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, Hobbs maintains a narrow 40% to 38% lead with 19% undecided and 4% preferring a third-party candidate. A Biggs versus Hobbs contest produces nearly identical results, with Hobbs ahead 39% to 37%, 19% undecided, and 4% supporting a third party.

The critical difference emerges in party unity metrics. Among Biggs supporters, an impressive 89% indicate they would support Robson if she secured the nomination to face Hobbs in November, suggesting the party could consolidate effectively behind her candidacy. However, among Robson supporters, only 81% say they would back Biggs in a general election, leaving nearly one in five either undecided or even open to crossing party lines. That asymmetry could spell real trouble for Republicans in November if Biggs emerges as the nominee.

“Arizona general elections consistently come down to a razor-thin slice of voters,” said Noble. “Robson may be better positioned to keep Republicans unified and remain competitive with independents, while Biggs risks alienating key segments of the broader electorate that Republicans will need to win statewide.”

The early polling suggests that Robson has successfully avoided the strategic mistakes that cost her the 2022 primary. Rather than ceding the Trump endorsement and MAGA voter base to her opponent, she has secured Trump's backing and is holding her own among his most loyal supporters while maintaining her appeal to establishment Republicans. With just less than a year remaining before the primary election, these dynamics could shift, but Robson appears to have learned valuable lessons from her previous campaign and positioned herself as the candidate best equipped to unite the various factions within Arizona's Republican Party.

“Robson may have the early edge, but Arizona primaries are never won in the opening rounds. Biggs isn’t going anywhere, and this matchup is on track to be a slug-fest between two heavyweights all the way to the finish,” said Noble.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 11–18, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 948 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.18%. The total sample included 385 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.99%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.