Presidential Race Within Poll Margin
PHOENIX (November 12, 2024)- As unofficial results from Arizona’s 2024 elections are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the close outcomes in Arizona’s critical races, further cementing NPI’s reputation as a top pollster.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of record, conducted from October 28–30, 2024, surveyed 775 likely general election voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ±3.5%.
U.S. Senate
NPI posted an extremely accurate result in the hotly contested race for Arizona’s open U.S. Senate seat. In our final poll of record, Rep. Ruben Gallego led Kari Lake by 4 points (48% to 44%). The latest unofficial results show Gallego maintaining a similar lead, 50.03% to 47.76% affirming NPI’s predictive accuracy. The poll found that Gallego’s support among Independents (+14 over Lake) and strong loyalty from Democratic voters helped him maintain a strong edge in this competitive race.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 95% of expected votes in
“Arizona is a light red state. No matter how you measure it – party registration, party identification, recalled past vote – it’s just a red state. So someone like Gallego needed to post exceptional numbers among Independents and Democrats while peeling off some Republicans,” said NPI CEO and Founder Mike Noble. “Our polling showed Gallego doing just that. We found, across many surveys, that Lake was closing the gap as Election Day neared – but that it wouldn’t be enough to erase Gallego’s lead. He’s cemented himself as a national player with this performance.”
President
NPI’s poll of record also correctly predicted that Trump would prevail in the presidential race. NPI’s final poll showed Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%. This was within a few percentage points of the unofficial results as of November 12, with Trump at 52.29% and Harris at 46.66% (within the margin of error for a candidate’s lead*).
Note: reporting is still in progress with 95% of expected votes in
“We pegged Harris’s vote share almost exactly. And, as we said at the time of our pre-election poll, we believed that Trump would strengthen his vote share in the final days of the campaign. That’s exactly what happened.” said Noble. “Throughout this election, our polls have given Trump a persistent lead, typically in the low-to-mid single digits. That makes sense, given the state’s unique mix of MAGA Republicans, McCain moderates, true swing voters, and Democrats. We just happened to land on one of our lower numbers for Trump right before votes came in.”
Proposition 139 (Abortion Measure)
The NPI poll also correctly captured Arizona’s stance on the abortion measure, Prop 139, indicating that 57% of likely voters supported the initiative with a 24-point leading margin. According to unofficial results, this measure is poised to pass with 61.54% support and a 23.14-point leading margin, confirming strong bipartisan support for abortion access among Arizona voters.
Note: reporting is still in progress with 95% of expected votes in
“Ballot measures are tough,” said Noble. “Those ‘R’ and ‘D’ labels really guide voters through the ballot. But they disappear on these measures. Many people decide what they think right in the voting booth, or they cast a vote that clashes with their party’s platform. You need to be careful to get these questions right – and based on our results, I’d say we got it right.”
The conclusion of Arizona’s 2024 election reaffirms the importance of pollsters with deep local knowledge and proven methodology. This latest poll in our Arizona series demonstrates our continued commitment to accurate election polling in the state. Our track record of precision in Arizona contributes to our high national ranking for pollster accuracy, particularly in the Southwest region, as recognized by FiveThirtyEight in the 2021-22 election cycle.
Learn more about NPI’s polling in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah here.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct 28-30, 2024, and surveyed Arizona registered voters from the voter file via text-to-online and live caller. In total, we interviewed 775 likely voters, determined by screening questions. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Arizona electorate by gender, county, age, party registration, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data and Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.5% for likely voters. Error due to design, non-response and other factors are not captured by sampling error. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
*Note that the margin of error for a candidate’s lead is roughly twice as large as the margin of error for individual candidates (the former is traditionally reported on poll reports). Intuitively, that’s because either candidate’s vote share could easily fall anywhere within the margin of error. More explanation can be found here.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.