Many Nevada Candidates for 2022 Office Seats Above Water in Favorability, but Lack Name ID
PHOENIX (August 5th, 2021)- Six in 10 Nevada voters are satisfied with the direction the state is heading, according to a new survey of the Silver State. Nevadans of all stripes – old and young, male and female, white and non-white – believe Nevada is going in the right direction. The only major voting bloc unsatisfied with the track Nevada has taken are Republicans – two-thirds of whom think Nevada is going in the wrong direction.
OH Predictive Insights gathered these opinions via its quarterly Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) poll. This NVPOP was conducted July 6th – July 11th, 2021 and surveyed 783 Nevada registered voters giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
State of Nevada’s Political Climate
“Despite confidence that the state is on the right trajectory, voters can’t agree whose hands should be steering the ship,” said OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble.
Two in five (41%) Nevada voters say Democrats would do a better job running the state of Nevada, while a statistically equal 39% say Republicans would do a better job. This belief changes depending where in Nevada a person is being asked the question. By a 10-point margin, Clark County residents would prefer Democrats run the state. Voters in Washoe County are split down the middle – Republicans and Democrats are tied at 38% apiece – and Rural Nevadans prefer Republicans by a 36-point margin (60% R / 24% D).
“When it comes to which issues are top-of-mind for voters, pocketbook issues reign supreme,” said Noble. “It’s interesting to see that Nevada voters are more concerned with jobs and the economy than healthcare in light of the pandemic. A candidate’s position on the economy could make or break them at the ballot box come November.”
Two-fifths (38%) of voters say jobs and the economy is the most important issue facing Nevada – a belief that spans the political spectrum. Similar shares of Republicans (37%), Independents (40%), and Democrats (38%) all say jobs and the economy is the biggest issue facing the state.
Opinions of (Future) Office Holders
Taking a look at how voters view various office holders and individuals who may make a run for office, two Governors lead the pack. Half of Nevada Voters (52%) view current Governor Steve Sisolak (D) favorably, while 39% hold a negative view of the Governor. Sisolak’s predecessor, former Governor Brian Sandoval (R) is also viewed positively by a majority of the state (51%). That being said, Sandoval is a much less polarizing figure – 41% of Democrats view Sandoval favorably while just 30% of Republicans hold favorable opinions of Sisolak.
Many of the announced Republicans who hope to unseat Sisolak have favorability ratings that are above water but are struggling with statewide name ID. Joe Lombardo leads his Republican primary opponents with a 43% favorability rating and 26% unfavorability. John Lee (32% favorable / 23% unfavorable) and Joey Gilbert (24% favorable / 23% unfavorable) have more work to do to boost the share of Nevadans who have an opinion of them. Former Senator Dean Heller – who has been rumored to be considering a run for governor, but has not yet announced his candidacy as of the writing of this release – is a divisive figure among Nevada voters. Roughly one-third (36%) of Nevadans view Heller favorably, while 35% view him unfavorably.
Turning to Nevada’s other hot-button election in 2022, the US Senate race, incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is slightly above water. Two in five (42%) Nevada voters – including 65% of Democrats, 40% of Independents, and 20% of Republicans – view Cortez Masto favorably, while 39% view her unfavorably. Cortez Masto’s +3 net favorability mirrors that of the individual shaping up to be her main Republican opposition, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt. One-third (35%) of Nevadans hold a positive opinion of Laxalt, with 32% holding a negative one.
“With an evenly divided Senate, every 2022 Senate campaign will have national consequences,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “However, given Nevada’s status as a swing state and two relatively well-liked candidates, expect an incredible amount of media attention to be focused on the state next year.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 11th, 2021, from a Nevada Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the Nevada Registered Voter Population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. Population statistics were determined using a combination of data from the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office and the most recent Census data available. The sample size was 783 registered voters, with a MoE of ± 3.5%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.