Trump’s Turbulent Start: Nevada Voters Reject Tariffs and Department of Education Dissolution
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Apr 30
- 4 min read
Updated: May 1
Economic and Governance Changes Cause Division Within Nevada’s GOP
PHOENIX (May 1, 2025)- As we near the 100-day mark of President Donald Trump’s second term, two critical issues are making headlines: tariffs and policy proposals to eliminate the Department of Education. New public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) reveals that Nevadans are pushing back on these controversial initiatives, even as Trump retains strong loyalty among segments of the Republican base.
This NVPOP, conducted from April 15–21, 2025, surveyed 814 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.43%.
Nevadans Say Tariffs Hurt, Not Help
Nevada's economy is particularly vulnerable to trade policy shifts. Known for its business-friendly regulations and low-tax environment, tariffs might drive up operating costs, discourage business development, limit job growth, and raise consumer prices. Nevada’s tourism industry may also suffer under new tariffs. Major hubs like the Las Vegas Strip depend on international visitors and a steady flow of imported goods – including food, alcohol, and merchandise – to power industries ranging from gaming to retail and hospitality. As tariffs escalate, businesses may face higher operating costs. And Nevada's tourism sector could take damage as international travelers boycott U.S. destinations in response to higher tariffs.
Nevadans are wary of these economic risks. According to the April NVPOP, a majority (51%) of Nevada voters believe that tariffs hurt the economy, viewing them as a cost passed on to consumers and a disruption to trade. Only 34% believe tariffs help the economy, and 14% remain unsure.
The partisan divide on tariffs is striking, with 81% of Democrats and 52% of Independents saying tariffs hurt the economy, while 63% of Republicans believe tariffs help the economy.
Among Republicans, loyalty to Trump plays a role in shaping views. The data shows 71% of Trump-first Republicans favor tariffs, while only 57% of party-first Republicans express support. GOP voters who don’t identify as either type of Republican (who make up only 5% of all Republicans in this survey) largely view tariffs negatively (64%).
“Trump-first Republicans tend to follow Trump’s lead and trust him on economic issues, while party-first Republicans are more likely to be free market enthusiasts, willing to break with Trump on issues where they disagree,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research. “So, Trump’s wing of the party believes Trump about the long-term benefits of tariffs – but the GOP’s old business wing is a tiny bit more skeptical.”
Department of Education: Strong Public Support for Preservation
Trump's proposal to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education has also sparked strong opposition. Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford recently joined a multi-state lawsuit challenging the move, reflecting widespread public concern about cuts to various parts of the federal government.
The NVPOP gathered opinions on whether Trump can end the Department of Education, as well as whether he should. The poll found that Nevada voters side with AG Ford – a majority (59%) believe President Trump should not eliminate the Department, while just 29% support its elimination. In terms of whether Trump can dismantle the Department, voters are more split – 41% say he can, 47% say he cannot.
“People ultimately want a government that works and provides basic services, like a functioning school system. When voters hear phrases like ‘dismantle the Department of Education,’ they recoil. Trump is in a strong position on some issues – like immigration – but voters see him as chaotic on tariffs and education. And chaos is not an effective political strategy,” said David Byler.
A 47% plurality of Republicans back Trump’s attempts to eliminate the Department of Education, but there is division within the different factions of the GOP. Among Trump-first Republicans, support jumps to 61%, indicating strong alignment with Trump’s agenda, but support drops to just 32% among party-first Republicans. Trump has lost Democrats and Independents on this issue, with 86% and 58%, respectively, saying Trump should not end the Department.
“If you have a wedge issue (divides one side, unites the other), you could lose support in Nevada. If Trump is losing some of his party, Democrats are already against him, and he is pushing Independents away, he’s going to have a bad time on that issue,” said Byler.
The NVPOP Dashboard is now updated with the data from this release!
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from April 15–21, 2025 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample included 814 registered voters, yielding a ± 3.43% margin of error. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Poll report can be found here
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights revolutionizes decision-making for leaders by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
