Strong Trump Influence and Early Voting Shape Race Dynamics
PHOENIX (July 29, 2024)- Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record on Arizona’s GOP Senate primary finds that Kari Lake holds a significant lead over her main rival, Mark Lamb, in the race for the U.S. Senate nomination. The poll also highlights the influence of Trump-style politics in Arizona’s Republican primary and insights into voter preferences that impact both the primary and general elections.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of record, conducted from July 22–23, 2024, surveyed 438 likely Republican primary voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ±4.65%.
Kari Lake leads Mark Lamb 49% to 38% in the GOP Senate primary. When unsure voters were pushed to make a choice, Lake reached the coveted 50% threshold of support while Lamb’s support remained unchanged.
Despite her overall lead in the primary, there are potential warning signs for Lake in the general election should she win the GOP nomination. While Lake dominates among those who are very favorable towards her (85% to Lamb’s 11%), she struggles significantly with voters who are only somewhat favorable (33% to 61%) or unfavorable (6% to 65%). Lake also faces challenges with some key groups:
· Younger voters (42% to Lamb’s 53%)
· Party-first GOP (38% to 49%)
· Rural counties (44% to 49%)
· Independents (32% to 37%)
“Lake looks promising in overcoming the first challenge in the Senate race – winning the primary – but she’ll have to shape her general election strategy to capture the key voter blocs she’s currently struggling with to compete with the Democratic candidate,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Trump’s Enduring Influence
This poll underscored the enduring influence of former President Donald Trump in the upcoming Arizona GOP primary. An overwhelming 90% of likely GOP primary voters view Trump favorably, with 80% holding a very favorable opinion. Among those with a very favorable view of Trump, Lake leads (57%) by a significant 21-point margin over Lamb (36%). In contrast, Lamb does better among the 20% of voters with lukewarm or unfavorable opinions of Trump, but this group is not large enough to secure him a victory.
Mark Lamb faces a challenge. Despite his Trump-like stances, Lamb has struggled to match the fervor that Kari Lake commands as Trump’s pick in this race. Lamb’s attempt to balance between Trump’s influence and McCain's legacy seems to alienate both factions. His inability to fully capture the Trump wing’s enthusiasm and excite the McCain supporters leaves him in a precarious position.
“Mark Lamb can be as Trump-like as he wants, but he can’t out-Trump Kari Lake. Lamb’s only other option is the McCain Lane – something he’s not built for. Even if he was the perfect McCain-y candidate, that wouldn’t be enough to win a GOP primary in Arizona anymore,” said Mike Noble.
Early Voting
Despite criticism of early voting from both Lake and Trump, two-thirds of GOP primary voters have already cast their ballots through early voting, according to the poll, and Lake leads with early voters 45% to Lamb’s 39%. Her advantage grows even more substantial among those who haven’t voted yet but plan to, with 56% support compared to Lamb’s 34%. This trend suggests that Lake’s lead is likely to expand as election day votes are counted.
Only 9% of voters said that they could still change their minds. A plurality of these voters support Lamb (43% to Lake’s 28%), putting Lamb more at risk of losing support from these voters than Lake.
“Even if everyone who hasn’t voted yet decided not to turn out, Lake has a firm enough grip on Arizona’s GOP to make her way to the top,” said Mike Noble.
Key Issues
When voters were asked who they trust to do a better job on key issues, Lake consistently outperformed Lamb, aligning more closely with primary voters’ priorities. Lake leads 51% to Lamb’s 28% on election integrity and 46% to 28% on inflation. Interestingly, voters are evenly split between Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (43%) and Lake (44%) when asked who is stronger on border security in general. Perhaps surprisingly, voters whose top issue was border security, when given a list of issues most important to them, broke toward Lake 61% to 37%.
As the Senate primary race enters its final stages, Kari Lake is well-positioned to secure the Republican nomination. However, the varying levels of support across different voter groups highlight the potential complexities she may face in a general election campaign.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 22-23, 2024, from an Arizona statewide Republican likely voter sample (frequent primary voters and Republicans registered after the 2022 primary). The sample size was 438 likely Republican primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.65%. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, and county to reflect the projected Arizona Republican primary electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.