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COVID Optimism in Arizona has Plateaued, Vaccination Hesitancy is Holding Fast

Updated: Jun 25

Concern Over COVID Continues to Wane



PHOENIX (July 21st, 2021)- While overall concern over the COVID-19 issue in Arizona continues to lessen, residents’ unwillingness to take a vaccine remains unmoved, according to a new Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey by OH Predictive Insights.


Pandemic panic is dissolving as more Arizonans are slightly or not at all concerned (42%) than those who are extremely or moderately concerned (35%). Even though concern is dropping, optimism for the next 30 days is not correspondingly rising, as it did during May. In May’s AZPOP, 55% of Arizonans believed the COVID-19 situation will get better, and only 46% said the same in July.


This AZPOP was conducted from July 6 – July 11 and surveyed 1,000 general population Arizonans (18+ YO) with a margin of error of ± 3.1%.


National and local news sources appear to influence the level of concern among Arizonans. The poll showed high concern from those who consume The New York Times, MCNBC, and CNN at least a few times a week. The levels of concern came from respondents who consume local TV, Radio, and FOX News at the same cadence were closer to the statewide average.


july 2021 azpop covid concern

Throughout the course of the pandemic, OH Predictive Insights has been tracking the concern, expectations, and vaccine willingness among Arizonans in order to record and analyze trends in the data over time. Since the opening of the 24/7 vaccination site at State Farm Stadium in early January of this year, our surveys have seen movement of vaccine willingness that trended upward, meaning that shares of residents have been steadily moving from “unwilling” into the “willing” and “already vaccinated” categories.


july 2021 azpop vax willingness

However, July’s survey results revealed a new insight: The data showed no statistically meaningful change from May in the number of Arizonans unwilling to take the COVID-19 vaccine (21%) while those who reported already taking the vaccine rose by 8%. This tells us that those who are unwilling to take a vaccine are standing their ground while the willing are taking steps toward vaccination.

“As Arizona continues to work towards herd immunity, the unwavering hesitancy of those unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine is a potential roadblock,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Vaccine distribution is publicly available, free, and efficient as ever, but at the end of the day, Arizonans must make the choice whether to be vaccinated.”


Among those unwilling to take a vaccine, there is an interesting coalition of non-whites, conservatives, and lower-income respondents. Educational attainment also appeared to play a role in one’s willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine, but only among white respondents – College-educated white respondents reported an 81% vaccination rate while 57% of non-college-educated white respondents said they had been vaccinated. However, 58% of college-educated Hispanic/Latinos say they have vaccinated, and a statistically equivalent 56% of non-college-educated Hispanic/Latinos are vaccinated, as well.


Of those who are not at all/slightly concerned about the spread of the Coronavirus, 32% are unwilling to take a COVID-19 vaccine. Meanwhile, respondents who said they are extremely/moderately concerned have nearly reached herd immunity amongst themselves – 68% of this group reported already having taken the COVID-19 vaccine.


july 2021 azpop vax willingness by concern

“As the lack of concern among the unvaccinated continues, coupled with the fact that nearly all COVID deaths in the nation are now among the unvaccinated, I echo CDC Director Dr. Walensky’s quote from the White House COVID briefing: ‘This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated,’” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.



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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 11th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide General Population sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, ethnicity, and education according to the most recent census data available. The sample size was 1,000 general population (18+ YO) Arizonans, with a MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.

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