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AZ GOP Statewide Primary Races: Down-Ticket Takeaway

Pima County Carries Mark Finchem’s Lead

PHOENIX (July 12th, 2022)- In the midst of early voting, statewide race results are shedding light on many undecided Arizona GOP voters. According to OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) latest poll, Mark Finchem maintains his lead in the Secretary of State race, the Attorney General race is a standoff, and incumbent Kimberly Yee for Treasurer and Tom Horne for Superintendent of Public Instruction hold large leads over their GOP opponents.

This AZPOP was conducted from June 30th – July 2nd, 2022 and surveyed 515 Arizonans qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Secretary of State

More than 7 in 10 likely GOP primary voters are still unsure of whom they’ll vote for in this race (72%), leaving only small percentages as an insight into whom will prevail at the ballot box. The Trump-endorsed and Republican frontrunner, Mark Finchem, continues to enjoy a significant lead (14%) over his opponents who are fighting for a distant second: Michelle Ugenti-Rita (6%), Beau Lane (5%), and Shawnna Bolick (3%). Finchem, a resident of Oro Valley, surprisingly earns a large amount of support (27%) from Pima County voters compared to only 11% from Maricopa County. Finchem is also in the driver’s seat with conservatives (15%) and moderates (10%). Since April, there have been no significant changes in the candidates’ voter support.


Attorney General

The Attorney General race is currently sitting at a standoff, with two-thirds of voters still undecided (67%). Even with a Trump endorsement, Abe Hamadeh struggles to differentiate himself from the pack. At only 7%, Hamadeh is closely followed by Andrew Gould and Rodney Glassman at 6% each. Dawn Grove is at 5%, Tiffany Shedd at 4%, and Lacy Cooper on the tail end with 3%.


Treasurer

Kimberly Yee holds a double-digit lead at 19% with Jeff Weninger and Bob Lettieri trailing far behind at 5% each. Despite 7 in 10 Arizona GOP voters being still undecided, Yee is a well-recognized incumbent and it will likely benefit her at the polls.


Superintendent of Public Instruction

Previous Attorney General Tom Horne is leading the charge for Superintendent of Public Instruction at 18%,while runner-up Michelle Udall has only gathered half the support (9%). Shiry Sapir falls in last place at 7%. Two in three voters are currently undecided. Just like all the other races, there are no significant changes from April.

“The Governor and Senate primary is taking up much of the oxygen (and airtime) away from these down-ticket races," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "With voters predominantly undecided in these races, their respective campaign efforts will be critical as they chase ballots, get out the vote, and spend their hard-earned campaign dollars leading up to Election Day."

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as a live caller/peer-to-peer text blended phone-based survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from June 30 – July 2, 2022 from an Arizona Statewide Likely Republican primary voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the projected Arizona likely GOP Primary Voter population by gender, region, age, and party affiliation according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. The sample size was 515 likely voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 4.3%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@ohpredictive.com, (480) 398-0998

Megan Newsham, OH Predictive Insights, m.newsham@ohpredictive.com, (314) 287-1985

About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online atOHPredictive.com.

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