Lake Likely to Win the GOP Nomination, but a Sinema Senate Bid Seems Unlikely
PHOENIX (February 22, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds that Arizona’s electorate is steering away from the MAGA brand when deciding who to vote for in the 2024 U.S. Senate race.
This AZPOP, conducted from February 6–13, 2024, surveyed 1,002 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
GOP Senate Primary
In a hypothetical 2024 GOP Senate Primary, Kari Lake is the strong favorite. Over half of registered Republicans support her, and she leads her closest competitor – Pinal County Sherriff Mark Lamb – by over 30 percentage points. With only 17% of voters undecided, Lake likely has the GOP nomination in the bag.
Lake, Gallego, and Sinema: The Republican you know loses to the Democrat you don’t
In a head-to-head with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and MAGA Republican Kari Lake, Gallego takes a 10-point lead, nearing the coveted 50% threshold at 47%. However, 16% of voters are unsure.
Moreover, when Sinema is added to the mix, Gallego’s lead plummets – dropping to only 3 percentage points.
According to David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI, two key factors are at play: Lake’s MAGA identity, and Gallego’s lack of a clear identity.
Byler said, “In Arizona, MAGA Republicans can easily win a GOP primary. But they struggle with McCain-style Republicans in suburban Phoenix. That’s why Gallego wins so handily in a two-way race but barely leads in the three-way contest. It’s also why Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in this poll. There’s a chunk of moderate Republicans who would pick Gallego over Lake in a two-way matchup, Sinema over both of them in a three-way race, and a bland, generic Republican over anyone – if the GOP would nominate one.”
Byler also noted that Gallego’s low name recognition may be helping him. Gallego had the most positive image of the three – Gallego has a +21 net favorability rating (47% favorable, 26% unfavorable) while Lake has a -9 rating (40% favorable, 49% unfavorable) and Sinema is +2 (44% favorable, 42% unfavorable) in the February poll. But Gallego is less defined than the others, with over a quarter saying they had never heard of him or had no clear view. All three have seen an increase in net favorability since the July 2023 AZPOP – but that may not last.
NPI CEO Mike Noble also noted that there are good reasons to think this race could become more competitive:
“Right now, all three candidates are working to rally their respective parties and improve their own images. But soon, that phase of the campaign will be over. Voters will tune in and hear Lake’s attacks against Gallego. His favorability rating may not stay so positive.”
Noble added, “Remember that Lake has gained ground in recent months by making in-roads with the GOP. She’s going to try to consolidate her party – and to make sure that Republicans who are currently behind Gallego know just how progressive his record is.”
Noble also pointed out that Sinema’s numbers dropped slightly – from 26% to 23% – over the last six months. “Sinema had a tough fundraising quarter and her support ticked down just a bit in recent months. She’s currently holding voters from both parties – as well as Independents – in her camp, but she also hasn’t formally announced a re-election bid. With the filing deadline just a few weeks away and her numbers on a downturn, I would predict that Sinema may not throw her hat in the ring for the 2024 U.S. Senate race."
A final piece of good news for Gallego: The Power Rankings
In late 2023, NPI conducted a new round of the Arizona Power Rankings, scoring the electability power of 50 big names in Arizona. Using a formula that considers a candidate’s name ID, net favorability, and how well their demographic characteristics and political experience match the preferences of Arizona voters, each candidate is assigned scores that represent their electability power. According to the Power Rankings, Ruben Gallego tops the list at No.1, Kyrsten Sinema comes in at No.9, and Kari Lake takes last place at No.50.
“The current poll numbers and fundraising totals should be front of mind,” said Byler. “But don’t forget that Gallego matches what voters say they want. That’s no small thing.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 6–13, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,002 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, m.noble@npredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.