Gauging a Sinema Third-Party Run
PHOENIX (November 16, 2023)- As the 2024 Senate race in Arizona continues to take shape, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) finds that a three-way race with Independent Sinema is anyone’s game.
This AZPOP, conducted from October 25–31, 2023, surveyed 1,010 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.
Arizona voters have overall positive impressions of 3 of the top 4 contenders in Arizona’s Senate race. Ruben Gallego is the most liked and Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Lamb have equal net favorability (+10). However, Lamb has the most room to grow with 44% of voters who have no opinion or never heard of him, compared to Sinema’s 20%. Meanwhile, Kari Lake sits at a negative net favorability.
GOP Senate Primary
This AZPOP tested a list of potential candidates in a 2024 GOP Senate Primary (please note that Blake Masters announced he will not be running for Senate after this survey was set in motion). Kari Lake leads the pack with 40% support while her nearest competition, Mark Lamb, sits at 14%. One-third of Republicans are still undecided and, with Masters out of the running, 43% of GOP voters are up for grabs.
*Note: Blake Masters announced he will not be running for Senate after this survey was set in motion
“With Blake Masters no longer in the mix for the Arizona Senate contest, Lake is likely to benefit the most as his 10% share of support gets distributed,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Lake is in the driver's seat in the GOP primary contest, meanwhile, Mark Lamb needs to step up his fundraising if he wants to mount a serious challenge to Lake.”
Gallego v. Sinema v. Lake
In a hypothetical matchup between Gallego, Sinema, and Lake, Congressman Gallego takes a single-digit lead while Lake and Sinema hover around one-third support each. When looking at support by party, Gallego enjoys the highest party loyalty of the three candidates at +72 among Democrats. Lake loses out on 3 in 10 Republicans, but captures a meaningful share of Independents (21%). In this matchup, Sinema is up by 19 points among her own party with 49% of Independents throwing their support behind the current senator. Notably, Sinema’s base of support is nearly twice as Republican (23%) than it is Democratic (12%).
“Recent reports of Lake courting moderate Republicans makes a lot of sense given the polling numbers we’ve been seeing on this contest,” said Noble.
Gallego v. Sinema v. Lamb
A hypothetical Senate race becomes even tighter when Lake is out of the picture. Sinema performs best in a matchup with a lesser-known Republican – Mark Lamb. Sinema and Lamb tie at 32% support each, leaving Gallego with only a 4-point lead. The current senator gains traction with her party at +27 among Independents in this scenario. Sinema still pulls in one-quarter of Republicans, and captures slightly more Democrats in this matchup compared to a matchup with Lake.
“It’s interesting to see that Gallego is still ahead even as Republicans lead in the presidential and generic House races (R+8),” said Mike Noble. “Part of that may be the presence of Sinema scrambling things for voters. But part of it may be Gallego cultivating a strong personal brand.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from October 25–31, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,010 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.