Utah Republicans Hold 2026 Ballot Edge as Cost of Living Dominates Voter Priorities
Generic Congressional Ballot Virtually Unchanged from April; Trump and Cox Ratings Decline
PHOENIX, AZ (September 22, 2026) — Republicans continue to hold double-digit leads on Utah's generic congressional and state legislative ballots, while the economy and cost of living is by far the top issue voters say will matter to their vote this November, according to Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP).
This UTPOP, conducted from September 8-12, 2026, surveyed 602 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.99%.
Republicans Maintain Double-Digit Generic Ballot Leads
Republicans lead Democrats by 20 points on the generic congressional ballot, with 26% of voters unsure. That is virtually unchanged from April, when the GOP lead was 21 points and the unsure share was also 26%.
The state legislative ballot looks similar: Republicans lead by 24 points, with one-quarter of voters unsure. Beneath the statewide numbers, age produces a sharp divide on the congressional ballot: voters 18-29 favor Democrats by 14 points, while voters 65+ favor Republicans by 34 points. Women are also less settled than men, with 33% unsure compared with 19% of men.
"Utah's partisan baseline has barely moved since spring," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "The biggest pocket of uncertainty is among Independents, where about half have not picked a side on either generic ballot."
Cost of Living Leads the November Issue Agenda
The economy and cost of living is the clear No. 1 issue heading into November: 46% say it matters most to their vote, nearly three times the share choosing either housing affordability or water, drought, and the Great Salt Lake (16% each).
That focus crosses party lines. Economy and cost of living ranks first among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents/Nonpartisans alike. The data also shows a generational split: Housing affordability rises to 29% among voters aged 18-29, but just 4% among voters 65+; meanwhile, water, drought, and the Great Salt Lake rises to 27% among voters 65+.
“Cost of living is the common denominator," Noble said. "But after that, younger voters are thinking much more about housing, while older voters are more focused on water and the Great Salt Lake."
Trump and Cox Ratings Fall Since April
Trump's net job approval moves from even in April to -10 in September. Cox sees the larger change, moving from net +19 to -4, a 23-point shift. The Utah Legislature's favorability moves from net +14 to an even 40%-40% split over the same period. Trump's rating on the economy is weaker still at net -19.
The September numbers also reveal a pronounced age divide. Trump ranges from net -46 among voters 18-29 to +10 among voters 65+; Cox ranges from -28 to +31 across those same age groups. Both leaders are net positive among men and net negative among women.
Voters Want to Move On From 2020 - and Put Privacy First on Voter Records
Nearly 7 in 10 Utah voters (69%) would prefer politicians and others stop discussing the 2020 election and focus on other issues. That view is shared by majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.
On voter-registration records, 54% approve of Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson pushing back against the Trump administration's request for Utah's full, unredacted voter file. The urban-rural divide is notable: 62% of urban voters approve compared with 41% of rural voters.
When voters are asked which concern matters more, personal privacy leads federal access for election-integrity checks by 31 points, 58%-27%; privacy is the larger concern in every major party group.
Tax Amendment Starts at 50% Support
Half of voters currently support the constitutional amendment requiring certain tax initiatives to receive at least 60% support to pass, while 21% oppose it and 23% are unsure. Independents/Nonpartisans are the least settled group, with 35% unsure.
Age is the clearest divide: support rises from 29% among voters 18-29 to 64% among voters 65+. Women are also more than twice as likely as men to be unsure, 31% to 14%.
The overall state mood is also nearly unchanged. A slim majority (52%) says Utah is on the right track and 48% says it is heading in the wrong direction, compared with 53% right track and 47% wrong direction in April.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from September 8-12, 2026, and surveyed Utah registered voters via online opt-in panel. In total, NPI interviewed 602 registered voters. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, race/ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Utah Lieutenant Governor's Office, and recent Census data. The margin of error was +/- 3.99%. Margins of error are larger for subgroups. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly OH Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.
