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Utah Poll of Record: Spot-On Predictions Solidify NPI as Utah’s Top Pollster

NPI Poll of Record Proves Accurate in Highly Competitive GOP Primaries


PHOENIX (June 27, 2024)- As unofficial results from Utah’s 2024 primaries are finalized, Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) poll of record has correctly predicted the outcome of Utah’s GOP Senate and gubernatorial primaries.

 

This Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) poll of record, conducted from June 20–21, 2024, surveyed 432 likely Republican primary voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ±4.71%.

 

Senate

In NPI’s poll of record, conducted just days before Election Day, results showed a 20-point lead for Rep. John Curtis over Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the GOP Senate primary, with Curtis at 48% and Staggs at 28%. Current unofficial results confirm our prediction – John Curtis wins the primary with 50.1%, and Staggs at 30.9% (as of June 26, 5:00pm) – both numbers well within the poll’s margin of error.

june 2024 ut por sen poll vs results

*Note: reporting is still in progress with 84% of expected votes in


NPI’s poll not only accurately predicted the election results but also provided deep insight into the internal dynamics within Utah’s GOP electorate. Trumpian politics are not as popular in this heavily Mormon state as they are in other red states, and the loss of the Trump-endorsed candidate emphasizes that trend. John Curtis, who is well-known for his more moderate stances, received significant support from Party-first Republicans (60%) while still managing to capture 22% from Trump-first Republicans. Staggs received 55% support from Trump-first GOP voters and 18% from party loyalists. Trump’s endorsement may hold less weight in Utah compared to other states, and when Party-first Republicans unite behind a more moderate candidate like Curtis, they have significant influence on the outcome.

 

"The value of this poll isn't just in the prediction – it's in the explanation,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “We now know that the Mormon vs non-Mormon split wasn't huge, and that other gaps – like the gender gap or the gap between Trump-first and party-first Republicans – made the difference. We know that if another MAGA politician rises in Utah, their base will likely be in the south. This poll doesn't just tell us what -- it tells us why."

 

Governor

NPI’s poll of record aced the gubernatorial race as well. Our poll showed incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox leading by 13 points at 55% with Phil Lyman at 42%. Current unofficial results confirm our prediction and our precision – Cox wins the gubernatorial primary by 13 points at 56.6% to Lyman’s 43.4% (as of June 26, 5:00pm). Other public polls on this race had Cox leading by at least 40 points, including the only other poll conducted in the month of June.

june 2024 ut por gov poll vs results

*Note: reporting is still in progress with 84% of expected votes in


"Our poll was accurate in both races, but the Cox vs Lyman projection is a particular point of pride. Almost nobody in the national or state media was watching this race. Virtually everyone else who was paying attention overestimated Cox. But we got it right. We were careful about methods, our sample, weighting, analysis – and it really paid off," said David Byler.

 

The Trump/party loyalty divide was particularly pronounced in this race. Trump-first Republicans clearly favored Phil Lyman who received 80% of their support compared to Cox’s 19%. Party-first Republicans were slightly less unified with 70% backing Cox and 28% supporting Lyman.  

 

Historically, Utah’s political landscape has been shaped by political figures like Mitt Romney who represented more moderate Republican stances. However, the pro-Trump wing is growing in strength, as evidenced by the significant support for candidates explicitly aligned with Trump. Despite this shift, Spencer Cox's victory in the election underscores the continued influence of party loyalists and moderates in Utah's electoral outcomes.

 

The wrap-up of the 2024 primary election in Utah once again proves the value of having a pollster who knows the ins and outs of the local electorate and sound methodology with a proven track record for accuracy. This NPI poll of record – the second of the 2024 election cycle – marks a continuation of successes from our Nevada GOP primary poll of record and the previous election cycle. NPI was ranked the #11 most accurate pollster and #4 for lowest average bias in the nation (#1 in the Southwest region for both) in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight.

 

“As long as we’re around, Utahns and key decision-makers in the state will not be deprived of consistent and accurate public opinion data,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.

 

Learn more about NPI’s polling in Utah, Nevada, and Arizona here.



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Methodology: This poll was conducted via SMS text. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from June 20-21, 2024, from a Utah statewide Republican likely voter sample (frequent primary voters and Republicans registered after the 2022 primary). The sample size was 432 likely Republican primary voters, yielding a MoE of ±4.71%. The sample was weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, and county to reflect the projected Utah Republican primary electorate. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Non-response, coverage error, and other factors may also contribute to error.


Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065


About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.


About the UTPOP: The Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) serves statewide polls to 800 Utah registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. The UTPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.

Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any UTPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the UTPOP here.

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