They Know What They Care About. They’re Not Sure Trump’s Delivering.

By Bradley Wascher, NPI Data Analyst

President Donald Trump made a lot of promises on the campaign trail – but like any candidate, he can’t keep them all. As the president's approval ratings have dropped on virtually every issue since taking office, the pressure is on him to prioritize.

Our May 2025 Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) asked voters whether Trump is keeping his campaign promises: 43% said yes, while 41% said no. But we noticed some notable nuggets in one particular crosstab based on a two-part question. It revealed conflicted views on economic issues while also highlighting key vulnerabilities – and opportunities – for Trump in his second term.

A Crosstab of a Two-Parter

Let’s start by zooming in on a particular sample in our poll, based on a series of three questions. First, we asked Arizona voters to select their top three issues from a list of options. Then, on the follow-up question, they were shown their selections and asked whether Trump is handling each issue well or poorly.

This introduces an interesting group: people who could name a top issue yet were unsure how Trump is handling it. To better understand the true preferences of these “ranked-but-unsure" voters, we looked at whether they felt Trump had kept his campaign promise more generally.

Respondents could select their top issues from a list with 13 named options, with each issue drawing some people who ranked it as important but were unsure of Trump’s handling of it. On ten issues – including affordable housing, inflation, healthcare, and education – ranked-but-unsure voters said the president was keeping his promises overall.

Note: All margins of error are in the double digits

Affordable housing received the most ranked-but-unsure responses: 103 people placed it in their top three issues, but could not rate Trump’s handling. Of this group – which is hardly large enough to be its own crosstab – 52% said the president was keeping his campaign promises, while 13% said he was not and 35% were unsure.

These respondents were more likely than other participants to be older, female, and Republican; more likely to recall voting for Trump in 2024; and more likely to approve of the president’s overall job performance. However, they tended to be split on whether they saw themselves as Trump-first Republicans or party-first Republicans.

Similar patterns appeared among ranked-but-unsure voters on other bread-and-butter issues, like inflation and healthcare, but they carry even larger asterisks concerning small sample size.

These numbers suggest that many ranked-but-unsure voters are conflicted, not ambivalent. In our poll, these respondents often supported Trump but weren’t as loyal as his core base, making them more likely to develop mixed feelings about his policy record. This effect is especially strong on matters concerning the economy, which has become one of the president’s least popular issues in his second term.

It also makes sense that on most issues, ranked-but-unsure respondents were more likely to be older and women. Trump has traditionally underperformed among both groups, meaning even if they are registered Republicans who typically support the president, they could be some of the first to lose faith.

Older people and women also historically turn out to vote at higher rates. In our poll, most ranked-but-unsure respondents reported voting in 2024 with intentions to cast a ballot in 2026 or 2028. This suggests that many are not low-information or low-engagement voters with ambivalent views on the issues (especially not if they’re answering political polls seven months after a presidential election). Rather, these voters are cautiously conflicted on key issues, and it could matter for Republicans if Trump does – or does not – keep his campaign promises.

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* The question doesn’t ask whether Trump is keeping his promises on any particular issues, but it’s broad enough for respondents to interpret however they want. For example, there’s a clear partisan divide, with 76% of Republicans saying Trump has kept his promises and 75% of Democrats saying he has not. Some voters truly are thinking back to what Trump said on the campaign trail, but many just give their gut feeling – either way, most will form their answer based on whichever issues mattered most to them.

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