The New Anti-Trump Resistance in Utah
- Noble Predictive Insights
- Jun 27
- 3 min read
By Bradley Wascher, NPI Data Analyst
No deep-red state has been more skeptical of President Donald Trump than Utah.
In 2024, Trump’s margin in the Beehive State improved by just 1 point — from 21 to 22 — even as the nationwide swing was nearly 6 points. Beneath the surface, Trump underperformed his 2020 margin in 17 of Utah’s 29 counties.
This suggests a special appetite for a resistance to Trump — one with a different DNA from the #Resistance of his first term. Utah’s unique culture and tradition mean some voters are especially reticent about the president’s red-meat rhetoric. Understanding why can offer clues about the future of anti-MAGA sentiment.
The president’s weakest post-2024 blocs include Mormons, moderates, and younger voters.
Trump’s unpopularity among members of the LDS Church has been a point of interest since his first campaign in 2016. That year, independent candidate Evan McMullin drew nearly one-third of the Mormon vote, leading Utah to rank as one of Trump’s worst-performing solidly red states.
Trump’s standing improved in 2020 without McMullin on the ballot. But in 2024, Trump ran behind his 2020 margin in six of the seven counties where at least 60% of residents are Mormon, based on estimates from the Public Religion Research Institute.
Trump’s margin shrunk by 3 points in both exurban Morgan County — 61% Mormon, wealthier than the state, and better educated — and in Cache County, which is 64% Mormon and contains Utah State University in Logan. Trump also lost ground in Utah County, home to Brigham Young University and the largest share of Mormons in any county in the country.
This decline among LDS voters did not show up in Utah exit polls, which reported Trump winning Mormons statewide by 49 points in 2020 and 50 points in 2024. But the drop-off did register on a national level: 31% of LDS voters nationwide supported Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to 23% who voted for Joe Biden. And, when political scientist Ryan Burge broke down the LDS vote by ideology, he found a notable erosion among ideologically moderate Mormons.
Translation: Not all, but most, of the data suggests that LDS voters are moving away from the GOP. In Utah, where about half of the electorate is Mormon, that’s a big deal.
And it’s not just Mormons. In our June 2025 UTPOP, Trump’s net job approval was 34 points underwater among atheists and agnostics, -19 among ideological moderates, and -14 among women. Many of these groups voted against Trump in 2024: according to exit polls, Harris won moderates in Utah by 5 points and non-religious voters by 40 points.
Polls also point to younger Utahns turning away from Trump.
Our UTPOPs ask GOP voters whether they see themselves more as supporters of Trump or the Republican Party. In April 2024, 40% of Utah Republicans aged 18-44 considered themselves to be supporters of Trump. In June 2025, only 28% selected the same option — a 12-point drop. Young voters were one of the key blocs where Trump gained ground nationally in 2024, but in Utah, they could be among the first to peel away.
Two other groups — those in Utah County and parents with children under 18 — defected from Trump in the loyalty question by double digits between the two surveys.
It’s unlikely that this opposition will pose an immediate electoral threat to the GOP. Republicans massively outnumber Democrats in the statewide registration totals and tend to band together when there’s just one Republican and Democrat on the ballot. And outside of Utah and a handful of adjacent states, LDS voters are a small portion of the electorate.
But in our era of highly competitive elections, every inch of erosion counts. In primaries, LDS Republicans could provide an early glimpse of just how Trump-y of a nominee moderates will tolerate. And in general elections, just a little movement — toward the GOP or against them — could bury either party.
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