Updated: Oct 23
Trump has a Double-Digit Lead in a State that Once Rejected Him
PHOENIX (August 22, 2023)- The 2024 Republican presidential primary is in full swing, and Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has new data on the state of the race. The latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse survey (UTPOP) asked Utah Republicans about their preferences in the 2024 presidential primary. The results were surprising – and illuminating.
Utah 2024 Presidential Primary
The data shows growing strength for Trump.
Trump – who took only 14% of the vote in Utah’s 2016 presidential caucuses – now has the support of 48% of the state’s Republican voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is in a distant second at 18%. Former Vice President Mike Pence, at 10%, is the only other candidate with double-digit support.
Trump’s position has improved over the course of the year. In the first UTPOP poll of 2023, he earned 42% support of respondents. He now has 48%. DeSantis, by contrast, has fallen from 29% to 18%. Pence has hovered right around 10%. Vivek Ramaswamy – included in the UTPOP candidate list for the first time in the July poll – emerged with 6% of the vote.
By the time Utah holds its contest – currently scheduled for March – some of these candidates might drop out. But, even in a one-on-one contest, Trump retains a strong lead.
In a head-to-head matchup with DeSantis, the former president stays at 48%, and DeSantis earns only 29%. Trump’s lead is powered by his traditional base. He wins:
· 57% of Republican men
· 66% of Republicans with a high school degree or less
· 65% of self-identified rural Republicans
· 88% of Republicans who say they’re more of a supporter of Trump than the GOP
· 58% who do not want Sen. Mitt Romney to run for another term
Trump hasn’t sewed up Utah. On August 10 – after this poll was fielded – the Utah GOP announced that they would switch from a presidential primary to a caucus, which tends to lower turnout and empower the party’s activist base. It’s unclear whether this change – or events in the coming months – will allow one of Trump’s opponents to make headway.
NPI Chief of Research David Byler said, “Our data shows that even in Utah – once a bastion of conservative resistance to Trump – the former president is gaining ground. DeSantis has struggled to find a compelling message or excite the grassroots, and many Republicans rallied to Trump in the aftermath of his indictments. There’s still time for this primary to shift, but Trump’s position has clearly improved.”
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from July 7th–18th, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 598 completed surveys, with a margin of error of ± 4.0%. Among the 598 voters surveyed, 301 were Utah registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.65% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, firstname.lastname@example.org, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, email@example.com, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to elevate the world around us by empowering leaders and decision-makers with digestible data and actionable insights that translate to data-based solutions. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (480) 313-1837 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.