Brown Leads Marchant in GOP Senate Primary
PHOENIX (March 19, 2024)- As the 2024 Senate race in Nevada gains momentum, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Nevada Public Opinion Pulse (NVPOP) sheds light on the dynamics shaping the landscape. Analysis of the poll’s findings reveals valuable insights into the current standing of the leading candidates and the potential challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
This NVPOP, conducted from February 27 – March 5, 2024, surveyed 829 registered voters in Nevada, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.4%.
Senate Matchups
Incumbent Senator Rosen is in a decent position early in the race, leading Republican candidate Sam Brown by 6 points and enjoying a 9-point lead over Jim Marchant. However, nearly one-quarter of voters are undecided in each matchup. While being ahead is advantageous, the voters who have yet to throw their support behind a candidate leave plenty of room for shifting allegiances.
One significant challenge for Rosen is securing ample support from Independents, a critical voting bloc in Nevada. The data finds around 4 in 10 Independents who have yet to decide who they will vote for in either matchup, emphasizing the need for outreach and communication strategies to resonate with this crucial demographic if she hopes to win the Senate seat.
Additionally, more than a quarter of Independents don’t know who Rosen is (27%), and she just about breaks even in her net favorability rating with them (+1) – and the Nevada electorate overall (+2).
“Many Nevadans – especially Independents – don’t know much about Sen. Rosen. That’s both a challenge and an opportunity. She needs to unify the Democratic base and make herself known to Independents if she wants to stay ahead,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
GOP Senate Primary
With one-third of GOP voters still undecided, Sam Brown currently leads Jim Marchant by 13 points in the primary race for the Republican nomination. Brown doesn’t just outperform Marchant in a primary head-to-head; GOP voters also believe that Brown is more electable than Marchant. Forty percent of Republicans believe that Sam Brown is more likely to win a Senate election against Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. Only 28% said the same of Jim Marchant, and one-third of GOP voters are undecided. On top of that, Brown is more liked (net favorability -2) than Marchant (net favorability -9).
Adding to Brown’s strength in a primary, GOP voters also feel Brown is more closely aligned with them on key issues – when asked, “Which of these candidates do you agree with most on the issues?” 37% of Republicans said Sam Brown, compared to 20% who selected Jim Marchant. However, 43% of GOP voters remain undecided on this question. That said, a potential hurdle for Brown: retaining the trust of Trump’s MAGA supporters.
Nevada’s GOP electorate is almost evenly split between GOP voters who identify more as supporters of Donald Trump (47%) and supporters of the Republican Party (45%). Marchant and Brown are statistically neck and neck to win over the Trump-first faction of the GOP, each capturing around one-third of this group. Marchant could make up ground if he gained more votes from this faction. But, for the moment, Brown has enough Trump loyalists and party loyalists to stay ahead.
“Brown's task ahead is clear: grow his plurality into a majority by primary day to make it to the general election, consolidate GOP support, and secure enough Independents and persuadable Democrats to cross the 50% threshold,” said David Byler.
Byler added, “This may be tougher than it sounds. Nevada is still a slightly blue state. Democrats have mostly won recent Senate and presidential races there. Even in this poll – where Trump leads Biden – Democrats lead Republicans on the generic House ballot by 3 points. The question is whether Brown can break through and win when so many other Republicans fell short.”
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from February 27 – March 5, 2024 from a Nevada statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 829 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights, m.noble@npredictive.com, (480) 313-1837
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.