Kelly and Lake have the Edge in U.S. Senate and Arizona Governor Races, Yet Still Within the Margin
PHOENIX (October 31st, 2022)- As Arizona’s General Election races toward us, candidates are neck and neck on the final lap to get to the finish line. OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) final Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll of likely voters before the General Election reveals that Arizona’s major races are close, however, the down-ballot races appear to be breaking toward the Democrats.
This AZPOP was conducted October 24th – October 26th, 2022 and surveyed 600 Arizona likely voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.
U.S. Senate Race
If the elections were held today, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly sits at 48% support among likely voters, Republican Blake Masters at 46%, and Libertarian Marc Victor at 3%. Only 3% are still undecided. Masters had a base problem, however, ever since the US Senate debate, an influx of outside spending, and teaming up with Kari Lake has consolidated his once rocky base of support.
“The Senate contest went from sleeper to competitive in this past month – Kelly’s massive spending advantage over Masters may not be enough to hold his seat,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.
The recent survey asked those who said they were voting for Masters whether they were showing support because they are in favor of him or because they were simply voting against Kelly. A majority of likely voters who will vote for Blake Masters (59%) said they are doing so because they are in favor of Masters, while 4 in 10 (40%) said they are voting for him because they are against Mark Kelly. On the flip side, Kelly’s coalition of support is more united in favor of the incumbent senator, with 73% saying they are voting for Kelly because they are in favor of him, while only 27% saying they are voting for him because they are against Blake Masters.
If elections were held today, former FOX 10 news anchor Kari Lake (49%) has a slight edge over current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (47%); however, Lake’s 2-point advantage is still well within the poll’s stated ± 4.0% margin of error.
“Going into the final countdown before the big day, Lake is holding a narrow lead, but with numbers this close and neither candidate above the all-important 50% threshold, we will all have to anxiously await live reporting updates on November 8th,” said Noble.
The survey asked likely voters what method they are most likely to use to vote in the November election. A narrow majority of Republicans (55%) plan to vote early – either by mail or in-person – while 44% intend to vote on Election Day. On the other hand, nearly 9 in 10 Democrats (87%) plan to vote early – either by mail or in-person – rather than on Election Day (12%). Characteristically, Independents are more split in their plans with 69% intending to vote early and 30% on Election Day.
“Based on this expected voter behavior, you can expect the first numbers posted on Election Night to favor Democrats, however, as the day-of votes get counted you’ll see Republicans quickly catching up,” said Noble. “Sit back and buckle in because it’ll be a wild ride as the votes get counted.”
An interesting takeaway from the survey is that a majority of Hobbs' voting base (55%) is voting for her because they are against Kari Lake, whereas three-fourths of Lake's voter base (74%) is making their decision because they are for Kari Lake rather than against Hobbs.
“Lake’s supporters are overwhelmingly behind her, whereas, Hobbs’ supporters are more against Lake than they are for Hobbs,” said Noble.
Secretary of State Race
In a turn of events, the Democratic candidate and former Maricopa County Recorder, Adrian Fontes, takes the lead in the Secretary of State race over the previously leading Trump-backed candidate, Mark Finchem. Independents, who were key drivers of the share of undecideds, are now breaking for Fontes, giving him a 6-point lead. However, 11% of undecided voters could still swing this election one way or the other come November 8th.
Attorney General Race
Democratic candidate Kris Mayes takes a within-the-margin lead over Trump-endorsed Abraham Hamadeh (45%, 42% respectively). With 12% of likely voters still undecided, these voters will likely be the deciding factor at the ballot box.
“If one thing is clear, voters are starting to really pay attention,” said Noble. “With no candidate in a comfortable leading position, most Arizona down-ticket races will come down to one thing: the undecided voters.”
The recent survey asked voters whether they will vote for or against Proposition 308, which would allow students who have lived in Arizona for two or more years to be eligible for financial aid to any four-year university or community college, as well as receive in-state tuition.
According to the survey, likely voters’ support is statistically split.
Methodology: This poll was conducted by OH Predictive Insights as 100% Phone based, Live Caller, and peer-to-peer text. The survey was completed from October 24th to October 26th, 2022, from an Arizona Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the likely voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and educational attainment according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State office and recent Census data. The sample size was 600 likely voters in Arizona with a MoE of +/- 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online atOHPredictive.com.