Women Will Be the Kingmakers in GOP Primary
PHOENIX (May 23, 2024)- The 2024 U.S. Senate race in Arizona is seeing some movement since Kyrsten Sinema decided against a re-election bid, as predicted by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) Founder & CEO Mike Noble in February. Now, according to new data from NPI’s May 2024 Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), Kari Lake remains the frontrunner in the GOP Senate primary, but her lead has narrowed, and she faces significant challenges against Democratic contender Ruben Gallego in a head-to-head matchup.
This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
GOP Senate Primary: Kari Lake's Lead Lessens
Kari Lake continues to lead the GOP Senate primary with 46% support, maintaining more than a 2:1 margin over her closest competitor, Mark Lamb, who has 21% support. However, Lake's support has declined from 54% in February, and the number of undecided voters has increased from 17% to 25%. Lamb’s support has remained the same since the February poll.
"Something we don’t typically see is an increase in undecided voters this close to primary election day. While Lake remains the frontrunner, her diminishing lead and the growing number of undecided voters indicate a volatile race," said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.
Favorability: Lamb's Potential Appeal
Mark Lamb’s net favorability rating among GOP voters stands at +36, slightly surpassing Kari Lake’s +32. Both candidates have substantial support within the Republican base, but Lamb has a slight edge over Lake. Lamb’s appeal extends beyond the Republican base with a net +18 favorability rating, sharply outperforming Lake’s net -6. Lake’s negative rating across the board suggests she is a more polarizing candidate, while Lamb’s appeal across the aisle makes him less divisive to the overall electorate.
“It’s not that Mark Lamb is unpopular among Republicans; they just prefer Lake as their nominee – for now,” said Mike Noble. “Being liked is half the battle, and Lamb has the edge over Lake there. He just needs to change up his strategy to make a good enough case for himself.”
Kari Lake's Struggles with Key Demographics
In terms of favorability ratings, Kari Lake is doing worse than Trump among critical voter groups compared to former President Trump:
Lake’s low rating among women, in particular, could have negative effects at the ballot box – about one-third of women (32%) have yet to make up their mind on who they will vote for in the GOP Senate primary, compared to just 19% of men. While Lake leads among both men (Lake: 52%, Lamb: 20%) and women, her lead is much narrower among women (Lake: 38% / Lamb: 22%).
"Women, in particular, will be the kingmakers in this primary,” said Mike Noble. “Lake's lower favorability ratings, even among traditionally supportive groups, will pose a significant challenge heading into the general election."
General Election: Gallego Leads Lake
In a head-to-head matchup, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 10 points (46% to 36%), with 19% of voters undecided. Gallego has strong support among Democrats (84%) and a lead among Independents (42% to Lake’s 26%), although one-third of Independents remain undecided.
"Ruben Gallego's lead in the general election, especially among Independents, highlights the challenges Lake would face in a broader contest," stated Mike Noble. "Democrats are more unified than Republicans at this stage, which gives Gallego an advantage."
Gallego's Favorability and the Electorate's View
Ruben Gallego has a net favorability of +20, positioning him as a generally well-regarded candidate. In contrast, Kari Lake's extensive exposure from the 2022 election cycle has left her more defined and more disliked.
"Voters view Gallego as a generic Democrat at this point in the cycle, in the same way that Mark Lamb is a generic Republican compared to Lake’s MAGA Republican reputation,” said Mike Noble. “Gallego's generic Democrat image and positive favorability, particularly among Independents, are assets, while Lake's high unfavourability could hinder her chances in the general election."
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive Insights, s.evenson@npredictive.com, (602) 350-1065
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.