Brnovich and McGuire are Strong Contenders to Take on Kelly
PHOENIX (August 2nd, 2021)- As Arizona gears up for another election season at the center of the national political debate – its third in a row, for those keeping score at home – the races for a number of different statewide offices are heating up, according to a new survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI). As the fields for Arizona’s Governor’s seat, a Senate seat, and other statewide offices take shape, neither party has an obvious advantage. Though 43% of voters prefer Republicans run the state, an equal number (42%) think Democrats would do a better job.
This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was conducted July 6th – July 11th, 2021 and surveyed 863 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
Governor On the Republican side, the race to replace Governor Ducey is being dominated by faces that are familiar to the Republican electorate. Half of the Republican electorate have favorable opinions of Kari Lake (60%), Matt Salmon (51%), and Kimberly Yee (49%) – all three are candidates who have had high-profile platforms for voters to get to know them. Outside of the GOP base, Lake and Yee also have particularly positive reputations among the state’s crucial independent voters. Less than half of GOP voters in the state have formed opinions of the two other announced candidates in the race, Karrin Taylor Robson and Steve Gaynor.
“It turns out Kari Lake’s decades of being on local television, Matt Salmon’s decades of experience in Arizona politics, and Kimberly Yee’s status as a current statewide officeholder have been major benefits to their name ID,” said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. “Who would have thought?”
Turning to the Democratic Primary, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has used the national platform provided to her by the Maricopa County Presidential Election Audit to give her an edge over her two announced primary opponents. Three-quarters (74%) of Arizona Democrats have formed an opinion of the Secretary of State, compared to just 54% for either Former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez or Arizona State Representative Aaron Lieberman.
When it comes to the general election for Governor and the votes of all voters are up for grabs – not just the party bases – the field is dominated by the female candidates. The three candidates viewed most favorably by the pool of all Arizona voters are Kari Lake (+17 net favorability), Katie Hobbs (+13 net favorability), and Kimberly Yee (+12 net favorability).
The November 2022 Election will have a US Senate seat on the ballot for the fourth time in as many elections, and following a familiar pattern, there are multiple Republicans fighting for the seat while Democrats have largely coalesced around one candidate. Among Republicans, Mark Brnovich leads his two closest competitors with a total favorability rating of 61% compared to Michael McGuire’s 43% and Jim Lamon’s 39%. Being mid-way through his seventh year in statewide office has boosted Brnovich’s name ID, given that only 30% of GOP voters have yet to form an opinion of the Attorney General while 51% and 54% of the party have not formed an opinion of McGuire and Lamon, respectively.
When Mark Kelly is added to the mix and we turn from the GOP primary electorate to all registered voters, Kelly’s incumbency looks a bit shakier. Though Kelly has the highest favorability rating among the foursome (50%), he also has the highest unfavorable numbers as well (40%).
“Although Mark Kelly is not in as safe as a position as he might like, with more than one year until the general election and an enormous campaign war chest, he has the time and resources to improve his numbers – or damage his opponents,” said Joss.
Note: Blake Masters announced his candidacy for US Senate after July’s AZPOP deployed, therefore his name was not included in this poll. His absence was not intentional, and we do plan to include him in the future.
Secretary of State
“This far out from Election Day, the Secretary of State’s race is a bit of a snooze-fest, to use a technical term,” said Joss. “While the big-ticket Governor and Senate races are getting some attention, voters just haven’t given much thought to down-ballot races.”
Two Democrats and two Republicans have announced their candidacies to replace Katie Hobbs, but no one on either side is standing out from the pack among registered voters at this point in the campaign. Less than half of the electorate has heard enough of any of the currently announced candidates to have formed an opinion of them.
Note: Shawnna Bolick announced her candidacy for Arizona Secretary of State just after the survey script for July’s AZPOP was finalized, and her name was not included in this poll. Her absence was not intentional, and we do plan to include her in the future.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from July 6th to July 11th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 863 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.3%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
About OH Predictive Insights: As a non-partisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights serves political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing with key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 480-313-1837 or submit a request online at OHPredictive.com.