A Five-Way Race Hurts Trump More Than Biden
PHOENIX (May 2, 2024)- In reliably red Utah, Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential election is as expected. But recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) shows that, although his winning margin has widened, his overall support has not.
This UTPOP, conducted from April 8–16, 2024, surveyed 600 registered voters in Utah, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.0%.
In Utah, both Biden and Trump have lost ground from their 2020 marks, but Biden has lost more. Trump’s support has decreased slightly from 58% to 53%, while Biden has dropped by double digits from 38% support to 26%. Even so, Trump is currently leading Biden by a larger margin (+27) than he did in 2020 (+20). This trend mirrors patterns seen in battleground state polls, where Trump's margin widens despite having similar or sometimes smaller shares of the vote.
"It's not just that Trump is winning; Biden is losing ground," explained Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. "Trump's increased margin in Utah reflects broader trends seen nationally, where Biden's support has eroded since the previous election."
Trump is performing better among LDS voters (+47) than the state overall (+27). This data point potentially challenges conventional wisdom about LDS voter preferences – Mitt Romney, a member of the LDS church, has typically captured the favor of this group, and has been vocal about his opposition to Trump. One might expect LDS voters to tend toward the position of their preferred politician and lean away from Trump, but in this scenario, Trump is overwhelmingly popular with the LDS population in Utah.
The data also reveals intriguing dynamics among younger voters, with younger conservatives overwhelmingly supporting Trump (+77) compared to younger liberals whose support for Biden is not as strong (+44). Older voters, on the other hand, do not have such a significant disparity in party loyalty – older conservatives (Trump +85) and older liberals (Biden +80) are similarly coalesced around their preferred candidate.
As Utah sees the emergence of a five-way Presidential race, Trump's lead diminishes slightly. When adding the other three declared presidential candidates to the mix, Trump’s support drops by 8 points, putting him just under the 50% threshold at 45% support and decreasing his leading margin by 5 points (+22). Biden, on the other hand, only loses out on 3% support in the five-way race at 23%. The closest competition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., manages to capture double-digit support (13%), only 10 points behind Biden. This meaningful share of voters split for Trump in the two-way matchup with Trump and Biden (Trump: 35%, Biden: 16%).
"In a state like Utah where, at this point in the race, Trump is almost guaranteed to win, seeing a drop in support when the field is crowded isn’t necessarily a cause for concern. However, if that trend is replicated elsewhere in battleground states, the assumption that a crowded field will help Trump might prove untrue," said Mike Noble.
NOTE: A previously published version of these results included a coding error among rural respondents. The numbers shown above reflect the corrected results. Correcting this coding error shifted topline results and crosstabs by, on average, less than a percentage point. All text (insights, takeaways, etc.) are unchanged.
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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from April 8–16, 2024 from a Utah statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 600 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Media Contact:
Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights, v.sutliff@npredictive.com, (602) 390-5248
About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 641-6565 or visit our website at www.noblepredictiveinsights.com.