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Indicted Electors Find Few Allies in Arizona

Updated: May 28

Voters are Adopting a “Wait-and-See” Approach

PHOENIX (May 28, 2024)- Recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) reveals that Arizona’s electorate is largely unsympathetic towards the 11 individuals indicted as fraudulent electors. A significant portion of the Arizona public, including a notable segment of Republicans, prefers to distance themselves from taking a side.


This AZPOP, conducted from May 7–14, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%. 


This poll asked Arizona voters, “Recently, 11 Arizonans were indicted by Attorney General Kris Mayes over accusations of conspiracy, fraud, and forgery related to the certification of the 2020 presidential election in Arizona. Which of the following statements do you believe to be true?”

The results:

may 2024 azpop indictments opinions


A notable 30% of Arizona voters believe these individuals are guilty, while only 13% think they are innocent. The majority of voters prefer to leave the decision to the courts or are unsure.



On May 21, 2024 – after this AZPOP poll closed – the 11 indicted individuals appeared before the Maricopa County superior court commissioner to plead not guilty to felony charges. All but one of the defendants were released without having to post bond. This arraignment set the stage for the upcoming trial in October. As the arraignment proceedings progress over the coming weeks, the case will continue to unfold. The case is unfolding against a backdrop of significant political division.

may 2024 azpop gop factions indictments opinions


Within the Republican Party, there is a notable lack of support for the indicted electors. Only 23% of Republicans believe the electors are guilty, and 20% think they are innocent. A majority (56%) prefer to leave the decision to the courts or are unsure.


“Most Republicans don’t want to touch these indicted-now-arraigned 11 with a 10-foot pole. They’re not willing to spend their political capital defending these individuals,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO.


Trump’s supporters aren’t jumping to defend these individuals. Among Trump-first Republicans – Republicans who described themselves as primarily a supporter of Donald Trump rather than primarily a backer of the GOP – 24% believe the electors are guilty, 27% think they are innocent, and 49% were either undecided or preferred to leave the decision to the courts.

Old-style party loyalists were even more tentative. Almost two-thirds (64%) of Party-first Republicans were undecided or are awaiting the court’s decisions, while 14% said the 11 were “innocent.”

Those planning to vote for Trump in 2024 in a head-to-head with Joe Biden are evenly split, with 21% thinking the electors are guilty, 21% thinking they are innocent, and 58% preferring to leave the decision to the courts.

“Put simply, rank-and-file Arizona Republicans are mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach to the proceedings,” said Mike Noble.


may 2024 azpop democrat indictment opinions

In contrast, Democrats are more united in their opposition to the indicted electors. A significant 43% of Democrats believe the electors are guilty, compared to only 9% who think they are innocent. The remaining 48% prefer to let the courts decide or are unsure.


Among Independent voters, opinions diverge, with 27% holding the belief that the 11 Arizonians are guilty, while only 10% advocate for their innocence. Almost two-thirds (64%) are unsure or prefer to defer to the courts. Among the three political groups, Independents were the least likely to have landed on a clear “guilty” or “innocent” verdict.

may 2024 azpop independent indictment opinions


“Overall, the survey results indicate an electorate that seems to prefer to wait for the judicial outcome rather than make definitive judgments,” said Mike Noble.




Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from May 7–14, 2024 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,003 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.09%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. 

Media Contact:

Veronica Sutliff, Noble Predictive Insights,, (602) 390-5248

Sydney Evenson, Noble Predictive, (602) 350-1065

About Noble Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan public opinion polling, market research, and data analytics firm, Noble Predictive Insights exists to transform how leaders make decisions by delivering data-based solutions and predictive insights that provide a clear path forward. We bridge the gap between research and strategy with customized strategic research, a hyper-focus on impact, and being true partners with our clients. Noble Predictive Insights (formerly O.H. Predictive Insights) is a 2023 Inc. 5000 fastest-growing company in the Southwest region, and is ranked in the top 15 most accurate pollsters as well as in the top 5 for lowest average bias in the 2021-22 election cycle by FiveThirtyEight. For more information, please call (602) 326-5694 or visit our website at

About the AZPOP: The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) serves statewide polls to 800-1,000 Arizona registered voters, with opportunities to include a sub-sample of likely voters in the state. Deploying quarterly surveys, the AZPOP paints a high-definition picture of the perceptions, opinions, and future decisions of voters to provide meaningful and actionable insights on public affairs and voter sentiment.

Organizations and individuals can purchase customized questions to add to the end of any AZPOP poll, exclusive to them and not shared publicly (unless otherwise requested), getting the same critical, targeted information at a fraction of the cost of a comprehensive survey. Learn more about adding custom questions to the AZPOP here.


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